An Empirical Test of Learning in Management Earnings Forecasts

An Empirical Test of Learning in Management Earnings Forecasts
Author: Yuan Shi (Ph.D.)
Publisher:
Total Pages: 98
Release: 2019
Genre: Business forecasting
ISBN:

My dissertation examines whether managers issuing earnings guidance learn from the forecast errors in prior earnings guidance issued by them. Using data on quarterly earnings forecasts issued by managers during the period from 2001 to 2016, I find results that are consistent with managers learning from their previous forecast errors to improve their forecast accuracy. However, the intensity of the managers' reactions to previous forecast errors is asymmetric. Consistent with prior literature that emphasizes the importance of meeting or beating forecasts for managers, certain managers that miss their own forecasts tend to be conservative enough in their future forecasts to avoid missing their own forecasts again. However, as expected, when the managers have met or beaten their previous forecasts, they have a smaller forecast error, but they still beat their previous forecasts. Additional analysis suggests that these effects persist even after controlling for potential earnings management to achieve these earnings targets. I also examine the impact of managerial attributes and board governance characteristics on the learning process. My analysis suggests that while CEO overconfidence and CFO overconfidence appear to impede learning, Managerial ability, CEO duality and outside CEO(s) as director(s) strengthen the learning effect. My findings shed light on an important aspect of management guidance and may have implications for users of this information such as financial analysts and investors.

Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations

Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations
Author: Sundaresh Ramnath
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 125
Release: 2008
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1601981627

Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations reviews research related to the role of financial analysts in the allocation of resources in capital markets. The authors provide an organized look at the literature, with particular attention to important questions that remain open for further research. They focus research related to analysts' decision processes and the usefulness of their forecasts and stock recommendations. Some of the major surveys were published in the early 1990's and since then no less than 250 papers related to financial analysts have appeared in the nine major research journals that we used to launch our review of the literature. The research has evolved from descriptions of the statistical properties of analysts' forecasts to investigations of the incentives and decision processes that give rise to those properties. However, in spite of this broader focus, much of analysts' decision processes and the market's mechanism of drawing a useful consensus from the combination of individual analysts' decisions remain hidden in a black box. What do we know about the relevant valuation metrics and the mechanism by which analysts and investors translate forecasts into present equity values? What do we know about the heuristics relied upon by analysts and the market and the appropriateness of their use? Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations examines these and other questions and concludes by highlighting area for future research.

International Perspectives on Accounting and Corporate Behavior

International Perspectives on Accounting and Corporate Behavior
Author: Kunio Ito
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 337
Release: 2014-07-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 4431547924

Despite the globalization of accounting standards occurring through convergence to International Financial Reporting Standards, local accounting systems are deeply intertwined with each country’s unique institutions such as its corporate system, disclosure practices and enforcement mechanisms. First, this book empirically analyzes the effects of globalization and localization of accounting rules on corporate behavior such as earnings management, signaling, investment behavior and dividend payout policy. Second, the book unravels the economic consequences of disclosure based on the concept of self-disciplining enforcement such as management forecasts, environmental disclosures and risk disclosures by Japanese firms. This volume is a step forward in understanding the link between accounting and corporate behavior based on a new institutional accounting approach.

An Empirical Examination of the Divergence Between Managers' and Analysts' Earnings Forecasts

An Empirical Examination of the Divergence Between Managers' and Analysts' Earnings Forecasts
Author: Somnath Das
Publisher:
Total Pages: 55
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

We study circumstances when analysts' forecasts diverge from managers' forecasts after management guidance, and the consequences of this divergence for investors and analysts. Our results show that investors' return response to earnings surprises based on analyst forecasts is significantly weaker when analyst and management forecasts diverge, and that this attenuating effect is stronger when the management forecast is more credible. When the divergent management forecast is more accurate than the analyst consensus forecast, the subsequent-quarter analyst consensus forecast is significantly more accurate than that of the current quarter, and exhibits less serial correlation. Overall, our findings suggest that, when analyst and management forecasts diverge, investors find the two sources to contain complementary information, and analysts learn to improve their subsequent forecasts.

Does Other Information Improve the Usefulness of Management Forecasts of Earnings?

Does Other Information Improve the Usefulness of Management Forecasts of Earnings?
Author: Marie Blouin
Publisher:
Total Pages: 50
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

Prior literature presents mixed evidence on whether managers can elicit a stronger market response to management earnings forecasts by including other forward looking information. There is little evidence to date on whether we should expect, a priori, a larger price change following a forecast that includes other information. I investigate three possible explanations. I posit that managers may be including other information with very surprising forecasts in order to corroborate exceptional news; however, I find no evidence to support this. Second, the disclosure of additional information with the forecast might signal a forecast of high accuracy or low bias, thus precipitating a stronger market response per unit of forecast surprise. I find no evidence of higher accuracy, but some evidence of reduced bias when forecast surprise is large and the news in the forecast is good. The real explanation appears to lie with information intermediaries. I predict and find that management forecasts with other information are more useful to analysts. I find that analysts make larger forecast revisions when other information is included with a management forecast and that subsequent analysts' forecasts are more accurate and less dispersed. Through the filter of analysts, the other information included with management forecasts of earnings gives market participants more accurate and consistent information about the future prospects of the firm.

The Analysis and Use of Financial Statements

The Analysis and Use of Financial Statements
Author: Gerald I. White
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 786
Release: 2002-12-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0471375942

Accounting Standards (US and International) have been updated to reflect the latest pronouncements. * An increased international focus with more coverage of IASC and non-US GAAPs and more non-US examples.