An Efficient Generalized Discrete-time Approach to Poisson-Gaussian Bond Option Pricing in the Heath-Jarrow-Morton Model

An Efficient Generalized Discrete-time Approach to Poisson-Gaussian Bond Option Pricing in the Heath-Jarrow-Morton Model
Author: Sanjiv Ranjan Das
Publisher:
Total Pages: 60
Release: 1997
Genre: Bonds
ISBN:

Term structure models employing Poisson-Gaussian processes may be used to accommodate the observed skewness and kurtosis of interest rates. This paper extends the discrete-time, pure-Gaussian version of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton model to the pricing" of American-type bond options when the underlying term structure of interest rates follows a Poisson-Gaussian process. The Poisson-Gaussian process is specified using a hexanomial tree (six nodes emanating from each node), and the tree is shown to be recombining. The scheme is parsimonious and convergent. This model extends the class of HJM models by (i) introducing a more generalized volatility specification than has been used so far, and (ii) inducting jumps, yet retaining lattice recombination, thus making the model useful for practical applications

An Optimization-based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy

An Optimization-based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy
Author: Julio Rotemberg
Publisher:
Total Pages: 84
Release: 1998
Genre: Inflation (Finance)
ISBN:

This paper considers a simple quantitative model of output, interest rate and inflation determination in the United States, and uses it to evaluate alternative rules by which the Fed may set interest rates. The model is derived from optimizing behavior under rational expectations, both on the part of the purchasers of goods and upon that of the sellers. The model matches the estimates responses to a monetary policy shock quite well and, once due account is taken of other disturbances, can account for our data nearly as well as an unrestricted VAR. The monetary policy rule that most reduces inflation variability (and is best on this account) requires very variable interest rates, which in turn is possible only in the case of a high average inflation rate. But even in the case of a constrained-optimal policy, that takes into account some of the costs of average inflation and constrains the variability of interest rates so as to keep average inflation low, inflation would be stabilized considerably more and output stabilized considerably less than under our estimates of current policy. Moreover, this constrained-optimal policy also allows average inflation to be much smaller. This version contains additional details of our derivations and calculations, including three technical appendices, not included in the version published in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997.

Bond and Money Markets

Bond and Money Markets
Author: Moorad Choudhry
Publisher: Butterworth-Heinemann
Total Pages: 1152
Release: 2003-07-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0080574939

The Bond and Money Markets is an invaluable reference to all aspects of fixed income markets and instruments. It is highly regarded as an introduction and an advanced text for professionals and graduate students.Features comprehensive coverage of: * Government and Corporate bonds, Eurobonds, callable bonds, convertibles * Asset-backed bonds including mortgages and CDOs * Derivative instruments including futures, swaps, options, structured products* Interest-rate risk, duration analysis, convexity, and the convexity bias * The money markets, repo markets, basis trading, and asset/liability management * Term structure models, estimating and interpreting the yield curve * Portfolio management and strategies,total return framework, constructing bond indices* A stand alone reference book on interest rate swaps, the money markets, financial market mathematics, interest-rate futures and technical analysis * Includes introductory coverage of very specialised topics (for which one previously required several texts) such as VaR, Asset & liability management and credit derivatives * Combines accessible style with advanced level topics

NBER Reporter

NBER Reporter
Author: National Bureau of Economic Research
Publisher:
Total Pages: 526
Release: 1997
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions
Author: Yacine Aït-Sahalia
Publisher:
Total Pages: 64
Release: 1998
Genre: Diffusion processes
ISBN:

When a continuous-time diffusion is observed only at discrete dates, not necessarily close together, the likelihood function of the observations is in most cases not explicitly computable. Researchers have relied on simulations of sample paths in between the observations points, or numerical solutions of partial differential equations, to obtain estimates of the function to be maximized. By contrast, we construct a sequence of fully explicit functions which we show converge under very general conditions, including non-ergodicity, to the true (but unknown) likelihood function of the discretely-sampled diffusion. We document that the rate of convergence of the sequence is extremely fast for a number of examples relevant in finance. We then show that maximizing the sequence instead of the true function results in an estimator which converges to the true maximum-likelihood estimator and shares its asymptotic properties of consistency, asymptotic normality and efficiency. Applications to the valuation of derivative securities are also discussed.

Efficient Estimation of Average Treatment Effects Using the Estimated Propensity Score

Efficient Estimation of Average Treatment Effects Using the Estimated Propensity Score
Author: Keisuke Hirano
Publisher:
Total Pages: 68
Release: 2000
Genre: Estimation theory
ISBN:

We are interested in estimating the average effect of a binary treatment on a scalar outcome. If assignment to the treatment is independent of the potential outcomes given pretreatment variables, biases associated with simple treatment-control average comparisons can be removed by adjusting for differences in the pre-treatment variables. Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983, 1984) show that adjusting solely for differences between treated and control units in a scalar function of the pre-treatment, the propensity score, also removes the entire bias associated with differences in pre-treatment variables. Thus it is possible to obtain unbiased estimates of the treatment effect without conditioning on a possibly high-dimensional vector of pre-treatment variables. Although adjusting for the propensity score removes all the bias, this can come at the expense of efficiency. We show that weighting with the inverse of a nonparametric estimate of the propensity score, rather than the true propensity score, leads to efficient estimates of the various average treatment effects. This result holds whether the pre-treatment variables have discrete or continuous distributions. We provide intuition for this result in a number of ways. First we show that with discrete covariates, exact adjustment for the estimated propensity score is identical to adjustment for the pre-treatment variables. Second, we show that weighting by the inverse of the estimated propensity score can be interpreted as an empirical likelihood estimator that efficiently incorporates the information about the propensity score. Finally, we make a connection to results to other results on efficient estimation through weighting in the context of variable probability sampling.

A Simple Framework for Nonparametric Specification Testing

A Simple Framework for Nonparametric Specification Testing
Author: Glenn Ellison
Publisher:
Total Pages: 56
Release: 1998
Genre: Forms, Quadratic
ISBN:

This paper presents a simple framework for testing the specification of parametric conditional means. The test statistics are based on quadratic forms in the residuals of the null model. Under general assumptions the test statistics are asymptotically normal under the null. With an appropriate choice of the weight matrix, the tests are shown to be consistent and to have good local power. Specific implementations involving matrices of bin and kernel weights are discussed. Finite sample properties are explored in simulations and an application to some parametric models of gasoline demand is presented.

Efficient Intertemporal Allocations with Recursive Utility

Efficient Intertemporal Allocations with Recursive Utility
Author: Bernard Dumas
Publisher:
Total Pages: 46
Release: 1999
Genre: Resource allocation
ISBN:

In this article, our objective is to determine efficient allocations in economies with multiple agents having recursive utility functions. Our main result is to show that in a multiagent economy, the problem of determining efficient allocations can be characterized in terms of a single value function (that of a social planner), rather than multiple functions (one for each investor), as has been proposed thus far (Duffie, Geoffard and Skiadas (1994)). We then show how the single value function can be identified using the familiar technique of stochastic dynamic programming. We achieve these goals by first extending to a stochastic environment Geoffard's (1996) concept of variational utility and his result that variational utility is equivalent to recursive utility, and then using these results to characterize allocations in a multiagent setting.