An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Turkey

An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Turkey
Author: Laura Papi
Publisher:
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2006
Genre:
ISBN:

High and variable inflation has been a central feature of the Turkish economy since the 1970s. This paper seeks to shed some light on the determinants of inflation in Turkey by analyzing price determination within the framework of a multi-sector macroeconomic model during 1970-95. The main findings are that monetary variables (initially money, more recently the exchange rate) play a central role in the inflationary process, that public sector deficits contribute to inflationary pressures, and that inertial factors are quantitatively important. Policymakers` commitment to active exchange rate depreciation on several occasions in the past 15 years has also contributed to the inflationary process.

An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Turkey

An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Turkey
Author: Ms.G. C. Lim
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 33
Release: 1997-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451858388

High and variable inflation has been a central feature of the Turkish economy since the 1970s. This paper seeks to shed some light on the determinants of inflation in Turkey by analyzing price determination within the framework of a multi-sector macroeconomic model during 1970–95. The main findings are that monetary variables (initially money, more recently the exchange rate) play a central role in the inflationary process, that public sector deficits contribute to inflationary pressures, and that inertial factors are quantitatively important. Policymakers’ commitment to active exchange rate depreciation on several occasions in the past 15 years has also contributed to the inflationary process.

Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey

Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey
Author: Faruk Selcuk
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 190
Release: 2018-04-27
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 135173928X

This title was first published in 2002. Since the 1990s Turkey has experienced a number of disasters, both physical and economic. The result has been a decrease in economic performance compared to other European states. This study addresses the country's ongoing economic struggles.

An Econometric Analysis the Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth in the Turkish Economy

An Econometric Analysis the Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth in the Turkish Economy
Author: Ercan Saridogan
Publisher:
Total Pages: 110
Release: 2017-11-13
Genre:
ISBN: 9781979733793

Main aim of this study is to investigate the effects of inflation on economic growth in the Turkish economy by using time series econometric techniques. Main results from the study are compatible with the results in the theoretical and empirical literature. Inflation and economic growth are cointegrated in the long run by results of the Johansen cointegration test results, inflation adversely (negatively) affect economic growth in the long run. Similarly, inflation Granger-causes economic growth in the short run. As a result, inflation affects economic growth in both short and long term in the Turkish economy for the given period. In the long run, inflation adversely affect economic growth, which influences negatively sustainability of the economic growth and welfare of the society.

Econometric Analysis of Import and Inflation Relationship in Turkey Between 1995 and 2010

Econometric Analysis of Import and Inflation Relationship in Turkey Between 1995 and 2010
Author: Volkan Ulke
Publisher:
Total Pages: 18
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

In economics, the relation between import volume and inflation rate has been discussed several times for different countries. This study investigates the relationship between inflation and import volume by using monthly time series data for the Turkish economy over the period 1995-2010. The study applies a number of econometric techniques: Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, univariate cointegration test, error correction model, and Granger causality test. The results of this dissertation show that there is long term and short term co-integration relation between inflation and import volume. Indeed, there is one-way Granger-causality from import to inflation.

The Effects of the Macroeconomic Determinants on Sovereign Credit Rating of Turkey

The Effects of the Macroeconomic Determinants on Sovereign Credit Rating of Turkey
Author: Osman Nuri Aras
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

The effects of the main macroeconomic determinants on the sovereign credit rating of Turkey assigned by Standard & Poor's are analyzed in this paper. As the main macroeconomic determinants, inflation rate, economic growth rate, foreign direct investment, external debt, current account debt and savings are taken into account in this study. The data related to Turkey in this study covers between 1992-2016. In this study, the Granger causality test and the OLS regression model are used for that correlations of the variables. Outcomes of the analysis show that just two in six macroeconomic determinants are effective on the sovereign credit rating. According to the results of the study, external debt and inflation rate have a statistically significant relationship with the sovereign credit rating of Turkey. The outcomes show that external debt and the inflation rate have negative effects on the sovereign credit rating of the country. The coefficient of the external debt and the inflation is negative which means that if the inflation or external debt increases the rating decreases in appropriate with the theory. On the other hand, the effects of the other four macroeconomic variables are not significant. The results of the study indicate that some factors other than the primary macroeconomic determinants are effective on the sovereign credit ratings of Turkey. The results also unveil the door for the criticism that the decisions of the credit rating agencies are biased.

Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies

Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies
Author: Jongrim Ha
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 513
Release: 2019-02-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464813760

This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.

Finite Sample Properties of Some Alternative Gmm Estimators

Finite Sample Properties of Some Alternative Gmm Estimators
Author: Lars Peter Hansen
Publisher: Franklin Classics Trade Press
Total Pages: 64
Release: 2018-11-10
Genre: History
ISBN: 9780353246904

This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. To ensure a quality reading experience, this work has been proofread and republished using a format that seamlessly blends the original graphical elements with text in an easy-to-read typeface. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 51, No. 3

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 51, No. 3
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 216
Release: 2004-11-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781589063518

This paper tests uncovered interest parity (UIP) using interest rates on longer maturity bonds for the Group of Seven countries. These long-horizon regressions yield much more support for UIP—all of the coefficients on interest differentials are of the correct sign, and almost all are closer to the UIP value of unity than to zero. The paper also analyzes the decision by a government facing electoral uncertainty to implement structural reforms in the presence of fiscal restraints similar to the Stability and Growth Pact.