Econometric Analysis of Financial and Economic Time Series

Econometric Analysis of Financial and Economic Time Series
Author: Thomas B. Fomby
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Total Pages: 407
Release: 2006-03-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0762312742

Talks about the time varying betas of the capital asset pricing model, analysis of predictive densities of nonlinear models of stock returns, modelling multivariate dynamic correlations, flexible seasonal time series models, estimation of long-memory time series models, application of the technique of boosting in volatility forecasting, and more.

Statistical Inference for Stochastic Volatility Models

Statistical Inference for Stochastic Volatility Models
Author: Md. Nazmul Ahsan
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2021
Genre:
ISBN:

"Although stochastic volatility (SV) models have many appealing features, estimation and inference on SV models are challenging problems due to the inherent difficulty of evaluating the likelihood function. The existing methods are either computationally costly and/or inefficient. This thesis studies and contributes to the SV literature from the estimation, inference, and volatility forecasting viewpoints. It consists of three essays, which include both theoretical and empirical contributions. On the whole, the thesis develops easily applicable statistical methods for stochastic volatility models.The first essay proposes computationally simple moment-based estimators for the first-order SV model. In addition to confirming the enormous computational advantage of the proposed estimators, the results show that the proposed estimators match (or exceed) alternative estimators in terms of precision – including Bayesian estimators proposed in this context, which have the best performance among alternative estimators. Using this simple estimator, we study three crucial test problems (no persistence, no latent specification of volatility, and no stochastic volatility hypothesis), and evaluate these null hypotheses in three ways: asymptotic critical values, a parametric bootstrap procedure, and a maximized Monte Carlo procedure. The proposed methods are applied to daily observations on the returns for three major stock prices [Coca-Cola, Walmart, Ford], and the Standard and Poor’s Composite Price Index. The results show the presence of stochastic volatility with strong persistence.The second essay studies the problem of estimating higher-order stochastic volatility [SV(p)] models. The estimation of SV(p) models is even more challenging and rarely considered in the literature. We propose several estimators for higher-order stochastic volatility models. Among these, the simple winsorized ARMA-based estimator is uniformly superior in terms of bias and RMSE to other estimators, including the Bayesian MCMC estimator. The proposed estimators are applied to stock return data, and the usefulness of the proposed estimators is assessed in two ways. First, using daily returns on the S&P 500 index from 1928 to 2016, we find that higher-order SV models – in particular an SV(3) model – are preferable to an SV(1), from the viewpoints of model fit and both asymptotic and finite-sample tests. Second, using different volatility proxies (squared return and realized volatility), we find that higher-order SV models are preferable for out-of-sample volatility forecasting, whether a high volatility period (such as financial crisis) is included in the estimation sample or the forecasted sample. Our results highlight the usefulness of higher-order SV models for volatility forecasting.In the final essay, we introduce a novel class of generalized stochastic volatility (GSV) models which utilize high-frequency (HF) information (realized volatility (RV) measures). GSV models can accommodate nonstationary volatility process, various distributional assumptions, and exogenous regressors in the latent volatility equation. Instrumental variable methods are employed to provide a unified framework for the analysis (estimation and inference) of GSV models. We consider the parameter inference problem in GSV models with nonstationary volatility and develop identification-robust methods for joint hypotheses involving the volatility persistence parameter and the autocorrelation parameter of the composite error (or the noise ratio). For distributional theory, three different sets of assumptions are considered. In simulations, the proposed tests outperform the usual asymptotic test regarding size and exhibit excellent power. We apply our inference methods to IBM price and option data andidentify several empirical relationships"--

Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Volatility Models

Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Volatility Models
Author: Jaya P. N. Bishwal
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 634
Release: 2022-08-06
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3031038614

This book develops alternative methods to estimate the unknown parameters in stochastic volatility models, offering a new approach to test model accuracy. While there is ample research to document stochastic differential equation models driven by Brownian motion based on discrete observations of the underlying diffusion process, these traditional methods often fail to estimate the unknown parameters in the unobserved volatility processes. This text studies the second order rate of weak convergence to normality to obtain refined inference results like confidence interval, as well as nontraditional continuous time stochastic volatility models driven by fractional Levy processes. By incorporating jumps and long memory into the volatility process, these new methods will help better predict option pricing and stock market crash risk. Some simulation algorithms for numerical experiments are provided.

Generalized Method of Moments Estimation

Generalized Method of Moments Estimation
Author: Laszlo Matyas
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 332
Release: 1999-04-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780521669672

The generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation has emerged as providing a ready to use, flexible tool of application to a large number of econometric and economic models by relying on mild, plausible assumptions. The principal objective of this volume is to offer a complete presentation of the theory of GMM estimation as well as insights into the use of these methods in empirical studies. It is also designed to serve as a unified framework for teaching estimation theory in econometrics. Contributors to the volume include well-known authorities in the field based in North America, the UK/Europe, and Australia. The work is likely to become a standard reference for graduate students and professionals in economics, statistics, financial modeling, and applied mathematics.

Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models with Diagnostics

Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models with Diagnostics
Author: A. Ronald Gallant
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

Efficient Method of Moments (EMM) is used to fit the standard stochastic volatility model and various extensions to several daily financial time series. EMM matches to the score of a model determined by data analysis called the score generator. Discrepancies reveal characteristics of data that stochastic volatility models cannot approximate. The two score generators employed here are "Semiparametric ARCH" and "Nonlinear Nonparametric". With the first, the standard model is rejected, although some extensions are accepted. With the second, all versions are rejected. The extensions required for an adequate fit are so elaborate that nonparametric specifications are probably more convenient.

Stochastic Volatility Models and Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation

Stochastic Volatility Models and Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation
Author: Ji Eun Choi
Publisher:
Total Pages: 141
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

Financial time series studies indicate that the lognormal assumption for the return of an underlying security is often violated in practice. This is due to the presence of time-varying volatility in the return series. The most common departures are due to a fat left-tail of the return distribution, volatility clustering or persistence, and asymmetry of the volatility. To account for these characteristics of time-varying volatility, many volatility models have been proposed and studied in the financial time series literature. Two main conditional-variance model specifications are the autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and the stochastic volatility (SV) models. The SV model, proposed by Taylor (1986), is a useful alternative to the ARCH family (Engle (1982)). It incorporates time-dependency of the volatility through a latent process, which is an autoregressive model of order 1 (AR(1)), and successfully accounts for the stylized facts of the return series implied by the characteristics of time-varying volatility. In this thesis, we review both ARCH and SV models but focus on the SV model and its variations. We consider two modified SV models. One is an autoregressive process with stochastic volatility errors (AR--SV) and the other is the Markov regime switching stochastic volatility (MSSV) model. The AR--SV model consists of two AR processes. The conditional mean process is an AR(p) model, and the conditional variance process is an AR(1) model. One notable advantage of the AR--SV model is that it better captures volatility persistence by considering the AR structure in the conditional mean process. The MSSV model consists of the SV model and a discrete Markov process. In this model, the volatility can switch from a low level to a high level at random points in time, and this feature better captures the volatility movement. We study the moment properties and the likelihood functions associated with these models. In spite of the simple structure of the SV models, it is not easy to estimate parameters by conventional estimation methods such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) or the Bayesian method because of the presence of the latent log-variance process. Of the various estimation methods proposed in the SV model literature, we consider the simulated maximum likelihood (SML) method with the efficient importance sampling (EIS) technique, one of the most efficient estimation methods for SV models. In particular, the EIS technique is applied in the SML to reduce the MC sampling error.

Stochastic Volatility and Realized Stochastic Volatility Models

Stochastic Volatility and Realized Stochastic Volatility Models
Author: Makoto Takahashi
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 120
Release: 2023-04-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 981990935X

This treatise delves into the latest advancements in stochastic volatility models, highlighting the utilization of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations for estimating model parameters and forecasting the volatility and quantiles of financial asset returns. The modeling of financial time series volatility constitutes a crucial aspect of finance, as it plays a vital role in predicting return distributions and managing risks. Among the various econometric models available, the stochastic volatility model has been a popular choice, particularly in comparison to other models, such as GARCH models, as it has demonstrated superior performance in previous empirical studies in terms of fit, forecasting volatility, and evaluating tail risk measures such as Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. The book also explores an extension of the basic stochastic volatility model, incorporating a skewed return error distribution and a realized volatility measurement equation. The concept of realized volatility, a newly established estimator of volatility using intraday returns data, is introduced, and a comprehensive description of the resulting realized stochastic volatility model is provided. The text contains a thorough explanation of several efficient sampling algorithms for latent log volatilities, as well as an illustration of parameter estimation and volatility prediction through empirical studies utilizing various asset return data, including the yen/US dollar exchange rate, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nikkei 225 stock index. This publication is highly recommended for readers with an interest in the latest developments in stochastic volatility models and realized stochastic volatility models, particularly in regards to financial risk management.

Stochastic Volatility

Stochastic Volatility
Author: Neil Shephard
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 534
Release: 2005
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0199257205

Stochastic volatility is the main concept used in the fields of financial economics and mathematical finance to deal with time-varying volatility in financial markets. This work brings together some of the main papers that have influenced this field, andshows that the development of this subject has been highly multidisciplinary.