Affine-Structure Models and the Pricing of Energy Commodity Derivatives

Affine-Structure Models and the Pricing of Energy Commodity Derivatives
Author: Ioannis Kyriakou
Publisher:
Total Pages: 39
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

We consider a seasonal mean-reverting model for energy commodity prices with jumps and Heston-type stochastic volatility, as well as three nested models for comparison. By exploiting the affine form of the log-spot models, we develop a general valuation framework for futures and discrete arithmetic Asian options. We investigate five major petroleum commodities from the European market (Brent crude oil, gasoil) and US market (light sweet crude oil, gasoline, heating oil) and analyze the effects of the competing fitted stochastic spot models in futures pricing, Asian options pricing and hedging. We find evidence that price jumps and stochastic volatility are important features of the petroleum price dynamics.

Financial Derivative and Energy Market Valuation

Financial Derivative and Energy Market Valuation
Author: Michael Mastro, PhD
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 534
Release: 2013-02-19
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1118501810

A road map for implementing quantitative financial models Financial Derivative and Energy Market Valuation brings the application of financial models to a higher level by helping readers capture the true behavior of energy markets and related financial derivatives. The book provides readers with a range of statistical and quantitative techniques and demonstrates how to implement the presented concepts and methods in Matlab®. Featuring an unparalleled level of detail, this unique work provides the underlying theory and various advanced topics without requiring a prior high-level understanding of mathematics or finance. In addition to a self-contained treatment of applied topics such as modern Fourier-based analysis and affine transforms, Financial Derivative and Energy Market Valuation also: • Provides the derivation, numerical implementation, and documentation of the corresponding Matlab for each topic • Extends seminal works developed over the last four decades to derive and utilize present-day financial models • Shows how to use applied methods such as fast Fourier transforms to generate statistical distributions for option pricing • Includes all Matlab code for readers wishing to replicate the figures found throughout the book Thorough, practical, and easy to use, Financial Derivative and Energy Market Valuation is a first-rate guide for readers who want to learn how to use advanced numerical methods to implement and apply state-of-the-art financial models. The book is also ideal for graduate-level courses in quantitative finance, mathematical finance, and financial engineering.

Efficient Pricing of Energy Derivatives

Efficient Pricing of Energy Derivatives
Author: Anders B. Trolle
Publisher:
Total Pages: 21
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

I present a tractable framework, first developed in Trolle and Schwartz (2009), for pricing energy derivatives in the presence of unspanned stochastic volatility. Among the model features are i) a perfect fit to the initial futures term structure, ii) a fast and accurate Fourier-based pricing formula for European-style options on futures contracts, enabling efficient calibration to liquid plain-vanilla exchange-traded derivatives, and iii) the evolution of the futures curve being described in terms of a low-dimensional affine state vector, making the model ideally suited for pricing complex energy derivatives and real options by simulation. I also consider an extension of the framework that takes jumps in spot prices into account.

Energy Derivatives

Energy Derivatives
Author: Peter C. Fusaro
Publisher: Energy Publishing Enterprises dba
Total Pages: 288
Release: 2000
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0970222807

The new finanacial markets for energy trading are growing globally. Financial derivatives now influence energy price formation for oil, gas and electricity. The power of the Internet is driving these global changes more rapidly and adding more price volatility. This book is the second of three books on energy trading and risk management written by best selling author Peter C. Fusaro. It covers the key new markets of emissions trading, weather driving, electronic energy trading, bandwidth trading and electricty and gas trading in Europe.

Stochastic Models for Prices Dynamics in Energy and Commodity Markets

Stochastic Models for Prices Dynamics in Energy and Commodity Markets
Author: Fred Espen Benth
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 250
Release: 2023-11-16
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3031403673

This monograph presents a theory for random field models in time and space, viewed as stochastic processes with values in a Hilbert space, to model the stochastic dynamics of forward and futures prices in energy, power, and commodity markets. In this book, the well-known Heath–Jarrow–Morton approach from interest rate theory is adopted and extended into an infinite-dimensional framework, allowing for flexible modeling of price stochasticity across time and along the term structure curve. Various models are introduced based on stochastic partial differential equations with infinite-dimensional Lévy processes as noise drivers, emphasizing random fields described by low-dimensional parametric covariance functions instead of classical high-dimensional factor models. The Filipović space, a separable Hilbert space of Sobolev type, is found to be a convenient state space for the dynamics of forward and futures term structures. The monograph provides a classification of important operators in this space, covering covariance operators and the stochastic modeling of volatility term structures, including the Samuelson effect. Fourier methods are employed to price many derivatives of interest in energy, power, and commodity markets, and sensitivity 'delta' expressions can be derived. Additionally, the monograph covers forward curve smoothing, the connection between forwards with fixed delivery and delivery period, as well as the classical theory of forward and futures pricing. This monograph will appeal to researchers and graduate students interested in mathematical finance and stochastic analysis applied in the challenging markets of energy, power, and commodities. Practitioners seeking sophisticated yet flexible and analytically tractable risk models will also find it valuable.

Commodity Derivatives

Commodity Derivatives
Author: Zaizhi Wang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 139
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

Commodity prices have been rising at an unprecedented pace over the last years making commodity derivatives more and more popular in many sectors like energy, metals and agricultural products. The quick development of commodity market as well as commodity derivative market results in a continuously uprising demand of accuracy and consistency in commodity derivative modeling and pricing. The specification of commodity modeling is often reduced to an appropriate representation of convenience yield, intrinsic seasonality and mean reversion of commodity price. As a matter of fact, convenience yield can be extracted from forward strip curve and then be added as a drift term into pricing models such as Black Scholes model, local volatility model and stochastic volatility model. Besides those common models, some specific commodity models specially emphasize on the importance of convenience yield, seasonality or mean reversion feature. By giving the stochasticity to convenience yield, Gibson Schwartz model interprets the term structure of convenience yield directly in its model parameters, which makes the model extremely popular amongst researchers and market practitioners in commodity pricing. Gabillon model, in the other hand, focuses on the feature of seasonality and mean reversion, adding a stochastic long term price to correlate spot price. In this thesis, we prove that there is mathematical equivalence relation between Gibson Schwartz model and Gabillon model. Moreover, inspired by the idea of Gyöngy, we show that Gibson Schwartz model and Gabillon model can reduce to one-factor model with explicitly calculated marginal distribution under certain conditions, which contributes to find the analytic formulas for forward and vanilla options. Some of these formulas are new to our knowledge and other formulas confirm with the earlier results of other researchers. Indeed convenience yield, seasonality and mean reversion play a very important role, but for accurate pricing, hedging and risk management, it is also critical to have a good modeling of the dynamics of volatility in commodity markets as this market has very fluctuating volatility dynamics. While the formers (seasonality, mean reversion and convenience yield) have been highly emphasized in the literature on commodity derivatives pricing, the latter (the dynamics of the volatility) has often been forgotten. The family of stochastic volatility model is introduced to strengthen the dynamics of the volatility, capturing the dynamic smile of volatility surface thanks to a stochastic process on volatility itself. It is a very important characteristic for pricing derivatives of long maturity. Stochastic volatility model also corrects the problem of opposite underlying-volatility correlation against market data in many other models by introducing correlation parameter explicitly. The most popular stochastic volatility models include Heston model, Piterbarg model, SABR model, etc. As pointed out by Piterbarg, the need of time-dependent parameters in stochastic volatility models is real and serious. It is because in one hand stochastic volatility models with constant parameters are generally incapable of fitting market prices across option expiries, and in the other hand exotics do not only depend on the distribution of the underlying at the expiry, but on its dynamics through all time. This contradiction implies the necessity of time-dependent parameters. In this thesis, we extend Piterbarg's idea to the whole family of stochastic volatility model, making all the stochastic volatility models having time-dependent parameters and show various formulas for vanilla option price by employing various techniques such as characteristic function, Fourier transform, small error perturbation, parameter averaging, etc.

Energy Commodities

Energy Commodities
Author: María del Carmen Frau Gomila
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:

This thesis focuses on the valuation of standard European call and put options, of which the underlyings are the prices of futures contracts on two energy commodities, specifically West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil (Chapter 1) and Henry Hub (HH) natural gas (Chapter 2). Both are quoted in USD and listed in the New York Commodities Exchange (NY MEX), which specialises in derivatives (futures and options) of agricultural products, precious metals and energy commodities. European spread options are also considered (Chapter 3). In order to define pricing, it is necessary to start by establishing a model for the underlying prices in each case; working with futures prices, the focus is on term-structure models where the time to maturity will be relevant. The starting point is the model proposed in Trolle & Schwartz (2009), considered as the benchmark. The stylised facts represented in this model are the following: (i) prices are stochastic; (ii) the cost of carry is stochastic; (iii) the correlation is negative between spot prices and their cost of carry; (iv) there is a mean-reversion in spot prices (due to the aforementioned negative correlation); and (v) the volatility of futures prices is stochastic and declining with the expiration of the contract (Samuelson effect)...

Modeling and Valuation of Energy Structures

Modeling and Valuation of Energy Structures
Author: Daniel Mahoney
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 547
Release: 2016-01-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1137560150

Commodity markets present several challenges for quantitative modeling. These include high volatilities, small sample data sets, and physical, operational complexity. In addition, the set of traded products in commodity markets is more limited than in financial or equity markets, making value extraction through trading more difficult. These facts make it very easy for modeling efforts to run into serious problems, as many models are very sensitive to noise and hence can easily fail in practice. Modeling and Valuation of Energy Structures is a comprehensive guide to quantitative and statistical approaches that have been successfully employed in support of trading operations, reflecting the author's 17 years of experience as a front-office 'quant'. The major theme of the book is that simpler is usually better, a message that is drawn out through the reality of incomplete markets, small samples, and informational constraints. The necessary mathematical tools for understanding these issues are thoroughly developed, with many techniques (analytical, econometric, and numerical) collected in a single volume for the first time. A particular emphasis is placed on the central role that the underlying market resolution plays in valuation. Examples are provided to illustrate that robust, approximate valuations are to be preferred to overly ambitious attempts at detailed qualitative modeling.

Energy and Power Risk Management

Energy and Power Risk Management
Author: Alexander Eydeland
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 506
Release: 2003-02-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0471455873

Praise for Energy and Power Risk Management "Energy and Power Risk Management identifies and addresses the key issues in the development of the turbulent energy industry and the challenges it poses to market players. An insightful and far-reaching book written by two renowned professionals." -Helyette Geman, Professor of Finance University Paris Dauphine and ESSEC "The most up-to-date and comprehensive book on managing energy price risk in the natural gas and power markets. An absolute imperative for energy traders and energy risk management professionals." -Vincent Kaminski, Managing Director Citadel Investment Group LLC "Eydeland and Wolyniec's work does an excellent job of outlining the methods needed to measure and manage risk in the volatile energy market." -Gerald G. Fleming, Vice President, Head of East Power Trading, TXU Energy Trading "This book combines academic rigor with real-world practicality. It is a must-read for anyone in energy risk management or asset valuation." -Ron Erd, Senior Vice President American Electric Power