Adding Indonesia To The Global Projection Model
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| Author | : Charles Freedman |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 59 |
| Release | : 2009-11-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451941714 |
This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add Indonesia to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.
| Author | : Michal Andrle |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 23 |
| Release | : 2013-05-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484301358 |
This paper introduces methods that allow analysts to (i) decompose the estimates of unobserved quantities into observed data, (ii) to better understand revision properties of the model, and (iii) to impose subjective prior constraints on path estimates of unobserved shocks in structural economic models. For instance, a decomposition of the flexible-price output gap, or a technology shock, into contributions of output, inflation, interest rates, and other observed variables' contribution is feasible. The intuitive nature and analytical clarity of the suggested procedures are appealing for policy-related and forecasting models.
| Author | : Michal Andrle |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 45 |
| Release | : 2013-05-10 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484360516 |
This paper discusses several popular methods to estimate the ‘output gap’. It provides a unified, natural concept for the analysis, and demonstrates how to decompose the output gap into contributions of observed data on output, inflation, unemployment, and other variables. A simple bar-chart of contributing factors, in the case of multi-variable methods, sharpens the intuition behind the estimates and ultimately shows ‘what is in your output gap.’ The paper demonstrates how to interpret effects of data revisions and new data releases for output gap estimates (news effects) and how to obtain more insight into real-time properties of estimators.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 38 |
| Release | : 2012-07-05 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475556314 |
This Selected Issues Paper focuses on the economic and financial ties between Poland and the euro area and analyzes the associated spillovers. It documents stylized facts about trade, vertical integration, foreign direct investment, and banking system linkages between Poland and core euro area countries. The impact of shocks originating from the euro area on economic developments in Poland is quantified using two methods, namely a vector auto-regression model and a small-open-economy quarterly projection model.
| Author | : Michal Andrle |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 26 |
| Release | : 2013-12-19 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484318374 |
This paper proposes a novel way of formulating priors for estimating economic models. System priors are priors about the model's features and behavior as a system, such as the sacrifice ratio or the maximum duration of response of inflation to a particular shock, for instance. System priors represent a very transparent and economically meaningful way of formulating priors about parameters, without the unintended consequences of independent priors about individual parameters. System priors may complement or also substitute for independent marginal priors. The new philosophy of formulating priors is motivated, explained and illustrated using a structural model for monetary policy.
| Author | : Javier Gómez-Pineda |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 52 |
| Release | : 2015-07-20 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513589679 |
The paper presents a global model with systemic and country risks, as well as commodity prices.We show that systemic risk shocks have an important impact on world economic activity, with the busts in world output gap corresponding to unobserved systemic risk associated with major financial events. In addition, systemic risk shocks are shown to be important drivers of output gaps while country risk premium shocks can have important effects on the trade balance. Commodity prices, in particular the price of oil, are shown to be demand driven. The model performs well at one- and four-quarter horizons compared to a survey of analysts' forecasts. In addition, systemic risk shocks explain a large share of the forecast variance for the world output gap, country output gaps, the price of oil, and country risk premiums. The importance of systemic risk shocks lends support for financial surveillance with a systemic focus.
| Author | : Ioan Carabenciov |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 79 |
| Release | : 2013-04-10 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484318943 |
This is the sixth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add three more regions and make a number of other changes to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.
| Author | : Patrick Blagrave |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 33 |
| Release | : 2013-12-19 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484318358 |
We extend the Global Projection Model (GPM) to include a separate block for China. China plays an important role in shaping global economic outcomes, given its sheer size and trade integration with other key economies, its demand for commodities, and its policies. Also, the Chinese economy has several unique features which differentiate it from the rest of emerging Asia. These features (the use of multiple monetary-policy instruments and a managed-floating exchange-rate policy) mean that a separate treatment of China allows for a better consideration of China, as well as how the rest of emerging Asia behaves.
| Author | : Anwar Nasution |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 492 |
| Release | : 2014-12-05 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1317631803 |
This book gives insight on the dynamics and route of economic policies that have been taken and implemented since the point of institutional reforms in 1998 that were triggered from the context of the financial crisis in 1997/1998. The condition brought a different paradigm on the landscape of economic and development policies, especially in the case of the monetary and financial structure, the international trade sector, the manufacturing sector, the taxes administration policy and the evolved context of decentralization and development of public sector policies in general. Given state of current economic development, this book offers suggestions to address economic issues that require improvements. This book is unique as: 1) it is about Indonesia, a country mostly affected by 1997/1998 financial crisis, which also lead to a change in regime; 2) it covers a broad range of thematic topics on sectors development and institutional changes from major policies that have been taken; and 3) it posits both existing and future challenges on monetary and financial sectors, trade, manufacturing and competitiveness, as well as on development of decentralization policies.
| Author | : Asian Development Bank |
| Publisher | : Asian Development Bank |
| Total Pages | : 677 |
| Release | : 2023-04-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9292700944 |
This publication highlights brighter economic prospects for Asia and the Pacific amid ongoing challenges. It forecasts growth across the region's developing economies of 4.8% this year and in 2024, up from 4.2% in 2022. The reopening of the People's Republic of China (PRC) will boost regional economic growth through supply chain linkages and demand for goods and services. Growth in the PRC is expected to rebound to 5.0% this year from 3.0% in 2022. Healthy domestic demand in India will also support regional growth: India is forecast to grow by 6.4% in 2023. Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia, the Pacific, and Southeast Asia will be lifted as tourism recovers. Meanwhile, headline inflation is expected to decelerate from 4.4% in 2022 to 4.2% this year and 3.3% in 2024. However, higher debt and interest rates have magnified financial stability risks, as evidenced by recent banking sector problems in the United States and Europe. An escalation in the Russian invasion of Ukraine could cause renewed surges in commodity prices, stoking global inflation and inducing further monetary tightening. Further, climate change and global fracturing remain persistent challenges. To confront these challenges, policy makers need to strengthen policies to ensure financial stability and actively support multilateralism to deepen regional cooperation.
