Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences
Author: Daniel S. Wilks
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 842
Release: 2019-06-09
Genre: Science
ISBN: 0128165278

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Fourth Edition, continues the tradition of trying to meet the needs of students, researchers and operational practitioners. This updated edition not only includes expanded sections built upon the strengths of the prior edition, but also provides new content where there have been advances in the field, including Bayesian analysis, forecast verification and a new chapter dedicated to ensemble forecasting. - Provides a strong, yet concise, introduction to applied statistics that is specific to atmospheric science - Contains revised and expanded sections on nonparametric tests, test multiplicity and quality uncertainty descriptors - Includes new sections on ANOVA, quantile regression, the lasso and other regularization methods, regression trees, changepoint detection, ensemble forecasting and exponential smoothing

Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction

Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction
Author: Andrew Robertson
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 588
Release: 2018-10-19
Genre: Science
ISBN: 012811715X

The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. - Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications - Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field - Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making - Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages

Next Generation Earth System Prediction

Next Generation Earth System Prediction
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 351
Release: 2016-08-22
Genre: Science
ISBN: 0309388805

As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.

Forecasting: principles and practice

Forecasting: principles and practice
Author: Rob J Hyndman
Publisher: OTexts
Total Pages: 380
Release: 2018-05-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0987507117

Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Middle Atmosphere Dynamics

Middle Atmosphere Dynamics
Author: David G. Andrews
Publisher: Academic Press
Total Pages: 502
Release: 2016-07-21
Genre: Science
ISBN: 0080954677

For advanced undergraduate and beginning graduate students in atmospheric, oceanic, and climate science, Atmosphere, Ocean and Climate Dynamics is an introductory textbook on the circulations of the atmosphere and ocean and their interaction, with an emphasis on global scales. It will give students a good grasp of what the atmosphere and oceans look like on the large-scale and why they look that way. The role of the oceans in climate and paleoclimate is also discussed. The combination of observations, theory and accompanying illustrative laboratory experiments sets this text apart by making it accessible to students with no prior training in meteorology or oceanography. * Written at a mathematical level that is appealing for undergraduates and beginning graduate students * Provides a useful educational tool through a combination of observations and laboratory demonstrations which can be viewed over the web * Contains instructions on how to reproduce the simple but informative laboratory experiments * Includes copious problems (with sample answers) to help students learn the material.

Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk

Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk
Author: Alberto Troccoli
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 462
Release: 2008-01-29
Genre: Science
ISBN: 1402069928

Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard "collection of proceedings". This therefore is the first unified reference ‘textbook’ in seasonal to interannual climate predictions and their practical uses. Written by some of the world’s leading experts, the book covers a rapidly-developing science of prime social concern.

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 192
Release: 2010-10-08
Genre: Science
ISBN: 030915183X

More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.