International Financial Contagion

International Financial Contagion
Author: Stijn Claessens
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 461
Release: 2013-04-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475733143

No sooner had the Asian crisis broken out in 1997 than the witch-hunt started. With great indignation every Asian economy pointed fingers. They were innocent bystanders. The fundamental reason for the crisis was this or that - most prominently contagion - but also the decline in exports of the new commodities (high-tech goods), the steep rise of the dollar, speculators, etc. The prominent question, of course, is whether contagion could really have been the key factor and, if so, what are the channels and mechanisms through which it operated in such a powerful manner. The question is obvious because until 1997, Asia's economies were generally believed to be immensely successful, stable and well managed. This question is of great importance not only in understanding just what happened, but also in shaping policies. In a world of pure contagion, i.e. when innocent bystanders are caught up and trampled by events not of their making and when consequences go far beyond ordinary international shocks, countries will need to look for better protective policies in the future. In such a world, the international financial system will need to change in order to offer better preventive and reactive policy measures to help avoid, or at least contain, financial crises.

New Approaches of Testing for Financial Market Crisis and Contagion

New Approaches of Testing for Financial Market Crisis and Contagion
Author: Yu-Ling Cody Hsiao
Publisher:
Total Pages: 448
Release: 2014
Genre: Financial crises
ISBN:

This thesis consists of four chapters that focus on the development of new statistical frameworks or tests of financial market crisis and contagion. A new test for financial market contagion based on changes in the fourth order co-moments is proposed in chapter 2 to identify the propagation mechanism of shocks across international financial markets. The proposed approach captures changes in various aspects of the asset return relationships such as cross-market mean and skewness (co-kurtosis) as well as cross-market volatilities (co-volatility). In an empirical application involving the global financial crisis of 2008-09, the results show that significant contagion effects are widespread from the US banking sector to global equity markets and banking sectors through either the co-kurtosis or the co-volatility channel. Chapter 3 analyses nine financial crises from Asia in 1997-98 to the recent European debt crisis of 2010-13 to answer the question of whether the great recession is different to other crises in terms of a range of hypotheses regarding contagion transmission. This chapter examines financial contagion with a focus on the correlation and co-skewness change tests, and the proposed co-volatility change test in chapter 2 to capture changes in the various aspects of the asset return relationships. The empirical results indicate that the great recession and European debt crisis are truly global financial crises. Linkages through financial channels are more likely to result in crisis transmission than through trade, and crises beginning emerging markets transmit unexpectedly, particularly to developed markets. Chapter 4 introduces a new class of multiple-channel tests of financial market contagion in which the transmission channels of financial market crises are identified jointly through the correlation, co-skewness and co-kurtosis of the distribution of returns. The proposed tests yield the correct size in small samples which is typical of crisis periods. Regarding the power of the tests, the multiple-channel tests display the second highest power following the single-channel tests if the data generating process for an experiment contains the transmission channel of contagion consistent with the single-channel test. In an empirical application involving the three financial crises of 2007-12, the results show that the joint tests identify various combinations of transmission channels. Chapter 5 introduces new framework for testing for crisis and contagion using a regime switching skew-normal model (RSSN model). This new approach provides a more general framework for developing five types of crisis and contagion channels simultaneously. Measuring financial contagion within the RSSN model can solve several econometric problems. These are i) market dependence is fully captured by simultaneously considering both second and third order co-moments of asset returns; ii) transmission channels are simultaneously examined; iii) crisis and contagion are distinguished and individually modelled; iv) the market that a crisis originates is endogenous; and v) the timing of a crisis is endogenous. By applying the proposed model to equity markets during the great recession using Bayesian model comparison techniques, the results generally show that crisis and contagion are pervasive across Europe and the US through the second and third moment channels during the great recession.

Testing and Dating Financial Contagion

Testing and Dating Financial Contagion
Author: Shang Chan Chiou
Publisher:
Total Pages: 176
Release: 2007
Genre: Financial crises
ISBN: 9780549010388

In the paper, we propose a new methodology to test and date the financial contagion. The newly proposed multivariate model not only incorporates endogenous structural breaks but also encompasses a "mixed" version of state-space model. It provides a "direct" test for the presence of contagion while controlling three types of bias, namely, heteroskedasticity, endogeneity and omitted variables. In contrast to the correlation-based test available in the literature, our test is direct by literally inspecting "the change of cross-market dependence". Contrast to the traditional state-space model, we explore the possible relationship among observable and latent factors. In addition, in stead of using exogenously specified turmoil periods, we endogeneously pin down the break points. Finally, the number of latent variables and the number of break points are also endogenously selected by a model comparison procedure. We illustrate the proposed methodology by analyzing the stock market collapses in Hong Kong, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and South Korea during 1997 and early 1998. The empirical study suggests three structural breaks occurred on 6/11/97, 10/15/97 and 11/12/98, respectively. The first two breaks are further shown to exhibit financial contagion. The conclusion of the existence of contagion is robust under various model specifications.