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| Author | : Glenn Wilson Brier |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 44 |
| Release | : 1946 |
| Genre | : Precipitation forecasting |
| ISBN | : |
This report on the progress of the project outlines a method of attack and describes some statistical techniques that might be useful to others approaching similar problems. A description of an objective forecasting technique is given along with actual examples of forecasts made by use of it.
| Author | : William H. Klein |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 130 |
| Release | : 1965 |
| Genre | : Numerical weather forecasting |
| ISBN | : |
Five-day mean and daily meteorological data observed since 1949 are analyzed empirically in order to derive useful climatological and forecasting relationships between surface weather elements and the circulation pattern. The synoptic climatology of 5-day precipitation, surface temperature, 700-1000-mb. thickness, and sea level pressure is investigated by constructing fields of simple linear correlation between these elements and the simultaneous anomaly of 700-mb. height over North American and adjacent oceans. The relation of precipitation and temperature to the field of sea level pressure is studied in a similar fashion. On the basis of the analogy are drawn concerning the association between each weather element and other meteorological factors. Schematic models are then constructed showing preferred portions of the circulation pattern at 700-mb. and sea level for opposite extremes of weather in different parts of the United States.
| Author | : John Murray Mitchell |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 96 |
| Release | : 1961 |
| Genre | : Atmospheric temperature |
| ISBN | : |
Long series of observations at climatological stations, commonly used for estimating secular climatic change, are frequently unsuitable for such an application. The purpose of this paper is to describe and apply an optimum methodology for measuring secular changes of temperature, by use of existing monthly mean data at cooperative climatological stations, with particular reference to the eastern United States.
| Author | : Tetsuya Theodore Fujita |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 96 |
| Release | : 1956 |
| Genre | : Synoptic meteorology |
| ISBN | : |
"The primary purpose of this paper is to present a significant scale of meteorological events. This scale, the mesoscale, is either overlooked or intentionally ignored in much of the analysis being done today. The reason normally given for this omission is the fact that these meteorological motions are essentially 'noise' superimposed on larger-scale circulations and it is with these larger-scale circulations that most of the meteorologists' efforts (both theoretical and synoptic) have been concemed. It is our opinion, however, that this 'noise' is directly tied up with the local weather and that the meteorologist will have to despair of ever being able to predict this local weather with a satisfactory degree of confidence unless he has accurnte knowledge of what is going on in the mesometeorological scale of motion. In addition to focussing the readers attention on this scale of motion, it is also the purpose of this paper to serve as a preliminary manual for mesoanalysis. Although most of the analysis techniques have been given elsewhere (T. Fujita, 'Results of Detailed Synoptic Studies of Squall Lines', Tellus, vol. 7, No. 4, 1955, pp. 405-436), they are described fully here for completeness. Moreover, all of the ditta used in the analysis have also been reproduced in the form of station time sections. It is intended that these will serve two purposes: (1) The reader is encouraged to follow the techniques presented, perform his own mesoanalyses and compare them with the results given here, and (2) the reader will be able to interpret the sequence of events as they transpired at any station in terms of the mesosystems, developed in the analysis, which passed the station. Finally, we wish to point out that we have concerned ourselves here with analysis and not with explanation. The analyses clearly show the formation, development, movement, and dissipat ion of mesostruct ures. From this point of view the primary purpose of the paper is realized. However, there still remains the problem of explaining the life history of the mesostrnctures from a dynamical point of view"--Preface
| Author | : Joseph J. George |
| Publisher | : Academic Press |
| Total Pages | : 684 |
| Release | : 2014-05-12 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 1483258602 |
Weather Forecasting for Aeronautics provides forecasters and pilots wanting to study more about the art and science of predicting weather with the essential aids and methods for making practical application of their knowledge of the fundamentals of the science of meteorology. The publication first underscores the forecast problem, construction of the prognostic pressure chart, and prediction of cyclogenesis. Discussions focus on forecasting information concerning new cyclogenesis, making operational and planning forecasts, cyclogenesis off the east coast of Asia, application of weather forecasts to operational problems, and cyclogenesis in the eastern United States. The text then ponders on forecasting the movement, deepening, and filling of cyclones and movement of anticyclones in North America. The manuscript takes a look at the movement of cold lows at the 500-millibar level and their influence on surface lows, displacement of surface cold fronts, and warm frontal analysis and movement. Topics include movement of warm fronts, identification and location of warm fronts, East Coast wedge type, and warm frontogenesis. The text then examines the movement of tropical cyclones, prediction of very low ceiling and fogs, and prediction of severe weather. The publication is a dependable reference for weather forecasters and pilots.
| Author | : Samuel B. Solot |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 60 |
| Release | : 1948 |
| Genre | : Long-range weather forecasting |
| ISBN | : |
In order to establish a meteorological forecasting system, it is necessary to find a direct relationship between measurable physical states of the atmosphere and the end product, the weather element to be forecast. The long range forecaster is quite limited in his choice of physical parameters. In fact only the very large-scale dynamics of the atmosphere which can be expressed in terms of mean pressure patterns are amenable to long range analysis. Thus the problem reduces to finding a link between mean planetary pressure patterns and precipitation in the Hawaiian Islands.
| Author | : Samuel B. Solot |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 48 |
| Release | : 1950 |
| Genre | : Hawaii |
| ISBN | : |
The second problem, that of the relationships between each index and mean charts, is discussed in Part 3.
| Author | : William H. Klein |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 68 |
| Release | : 1949 |
| Genre | : Meteorology |
| ISBN | : |
The investigation to be described in full in this report was started as a pilot project in July 1946, in an effort to improve and render more objective the precipitation anomaly estimates based on prognostic circulation patterns. Precipitation rather than temperature was investigated, because the forecast verification scores had been consistently lower on precipitation than on temperature forecasts.
| Author | : United States. Weather Bureau |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 56 |
| Release | : 1963 |
| Genre | : Atmospheric models |
| ISBN | : |
By careful consideration of the observed winds and with the aid of various empirical and dynamics relationships, a steady-state 3-dimensional wind flow is deduced over northern California for a 24-hour stormy period. The production (or evaporation) of precipitation elements is estimated for all parts of the flow, the surviving elements are followed down to the surface, and the resulting precipitation with the observed.
