A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: an Application to Cambodia

A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: an Application to Cambodia
Author: Daniel Baksa
Publisher:
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2020-09-25
Genre:
ISBN: 9781513556857

The paper describes a semistructural macrofiscal approach to simulating and forecasting macroeconomic policies. Our canonical model is adapted to Cambodia and we demonstrate its application with an illustrative scenario of macroeconomic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Complemented with near-term forecasting tools and expert judgment, the dynamics of the model helps to inform policymakers about medium-term transmission channels and thus guide policy advice.

A Semi-Structural Model for Credit Cycle and Policy Analysis – An Application for Luxembourg

A Semi-Structural Model for Credit Cycle and Policy Analysis – An Application for Luxembourg
Author: Carlos de Resende
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2024-07-09
Genre:
ISBN:

The paper explores the nexus between the financial and business cycles in a semi-structural New Keynesian model with a financial accelerator, an active banking sector, and an endogenous macroprudential policy reaction function. We parametrize the model for Luxembourg through a mix of calibration and Bayesian estimation techniques. The model features dynamic properties that align with theoretical priors and empirical evidence and displays sensible data-matching and forecasting capabilities, especially for credit indicators. We find that the credit gap, which remained positive during COVID-19 amid continued favorable financial conditions and policy support, had been closing by mid-2022. Model-based forecasts using data up to 2022Q2 and conditional on the October 2022 WEO projections for the Euro area suggest that Luxembourg's business and credit cycles would deteriorate until late 2024. Based on these insights about the current and projected positions in the credit cycle, the model can guide policymakers on how to adjust the macroprudential policy stance. Policy simulations suggest that the weights given to measures of credit-to-GDP and asset price gaps in the macroprudential policy rule should be well-calibrated to avoid unwarranted volatility in the policy response.

Using Macroeconomic Frameworks to Analyze the Impact of COVID-19

Using Macroeconomic Frameworks to Analyze the Impact of COVID-19
Author: Mr. Ales Bulir
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 30
Release: 2021-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513571974

This technical note and manual (TNM) addresses the following issues: • Evaluating the full implications from the policies adopted to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy requires a well-developed macroeconomic framework. This note illustrates how such frameworks were used to analyze Colombia and Cambodia's shock impact at the beginning of the pandemic. • The use of macroeconomic frameworks is not to infer general policy conclusions from abstract models or empirical analysis but to help policymakers think through and articulate coherent forecasts, scenarios, and policy responses. • The two country cases illustrate how to construct a baseline scenario consistent with a COVID-19 shock within structural macroeconomic models. The scenario is built gradually to incorporate the available information, the pandemic's full effects, and the policy responses. • The results demonstrate the value of combining close attention to the data, near-term forecasting, and model-based analyses to support coherent policies.

An Extended Quarterly Projection Model: Credit Cycle, Macrofinancial Linkages and Macroprudential Measures: The Case of the Philippines

An Extended Quarterly Projection Model: Credit Cycle, Macrofinancial Linkages and Macroprudential Measures: The Case of the Philippines
Author: Mr. Philippe D Karam
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 45
Release: 2021-10-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1589068718

We extend a modern practical Quarterly Projection Model to study credit cycle dynamics and risks, focusing on macrofinancial linkages and the role of macroprudential policy in achieving economic and financial stability. We tailor the model to the Philippines and evaluate the model’s properties along several dimensions. The model produces plausible dynamics and sensible forecasts. This along with its simplicity makes it useful for policy analysis. In particular, it should help policymakers understand the quantitative implications of responding to changes in domestic financial conditions, along with other shocks, through the joint use of macroprudential and monetary policies.

Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Ghana

Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Ghana
Author: Philip Abradu-Otoo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 39
Release: 2022-09-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

The paper describes the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) that underlies the Bank of Ghana Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS). The New Keynesian semi-structural model incorporates the main features of the Ghanaian economy, transmission channels and policy framework, including an inflation targeting central bank and aggregate demand effects of fiscal policy. The shock propagation mechanisms embedded in the calibrated QPM demonstrate its theoretical consistency, while out-of-sample forecasting accuracy validates its empirical robustness. Another important part of the QPM is endogenous policy credibility, which may aggravate policy trade-offs in the model and make it more realistic for developing economies. Historical track record of real time policy analysis and medium-term forecasting conducted with the QPM – as a component of the broader FPAS analytical organization – establishes its critical role in supporting the Bank’s forward-looking monetary policy framework.

Morocco’s Monetary Policy Transmission in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Morocco’s Monetary Policy Transmission in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Author: Mr. Roberto Cardarelli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2021-10-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1589067266

This paper finds that the neutral interest rate has been on a downward trajectory in Morocco since the global financial crisis and may have fallen in the wake of the pandemic. In that context, monetary policy transmission to output and prices appears relatively muted given limited exchange rate flexibility until recently. Also, monetary policy transmission to some market rates has somewhat weakened in the wake of the pandemic. A lower natural rate and low policy rates raise the question of whether further rate reductions would impair the banking system. We find that the sensitivity of cash demand to deposit rates is low, implying limited risks that banks would lose funding with further reductions. A reliance on checking and savings accounts for funding may impair monetary pass-through, however. If monetary policy reaches its effective lower bound, limited and credible recourse to an asset purchase program could usefully complement conventional measures and strengthen monetary policy transmission under an inflation-targeting regime with a flexible exchange rate.

Taking Stock of IMF Capacity Development on Monetary Policy Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems

Taking Stock of IMF Capacity Development on Monetary Policy Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems
Author: John C. Odling-Smee
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 68
Release: 1993
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 155775327X

This paper takes stock of forecasting and policy analysis system capacity development (FPAS CD), drawing extensively on the experience and lessons learned from developing FPAS capacity in the central banks. By sharing the insights gained during FPAS CD delivery and outlining the typical tools developed in the process, the paper aims to facilitate the understanding of FPAS CD within the IMF and to inform future CD on building macroeconomic frameworks. As such, the paper offers a qualitative assessment of the experience with FPAS CD delivery and the use of FPAS in the decision-making process in central banks.

A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Morocco

A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Morocco
Author: Daniel Baksa
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 35
Release: 2021-07-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 151359298X

The paper describes a semistructural macrofiscal approach to simulating and forecasting macroeconomic policies. The model focuses on only a few variables that are consistent with the New Keynesian framework. Thanks to its simplicity, it facilitates an initial and intuitive understanding of monetary and fiscal policy transmission channels, and their main impact on economic activity. The model is adapted to Morocco and we demonstrate its application with an illustrative scenario of policy responses to a slower-than-expected recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, under different monetary policy and exchange rate regimes.

Kingdom of Lesotho

Kingdom of Lesotho
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 43
Release: 2023-07-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

Kingdom of Lesotho: Selected Issues

PEFA, Public Financial Management, and Good Governance

PEFA, Public Financial Management, and Good Governance
Author: Jens Kromann Kristensen
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 168
Release: 2019-11-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 146481466X

This project, based on the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) data set, researched how PEFA can be used to shape policy development in public financial management (PFM) and other major relevant policy areas such as anticorruption, revenue mobilization, political economy analysis, and fragile states. The report explores what shapes the PFM system in low- and middle-income countries by examining the relationship between political institutions and the quality of the PFM system. Although the report finds some evidence that multiple political parties in control of the legislature is associated with better PFM performance, the report finds the need to further refine and test the theories on the relationship between political institutions and PFM. The report addresses the question of the outcomes of PFM systems, distinguishing between fragile and nonfragile states. It finds that better PFM performance is associated with more reliable budgets in terms of expenditure composition in fragile states, but not aggregate budget credibility. Moreover, in contrast to existing studies, it finds no evidence that PFM quality matters for deficit and debt ratios, irrespective of whether a country is fragile or not. The report also explores the relationship between perceptions of corruption and PFM performance. It finds strong evidence of a relationship between better PFM performance and improvements in perceptions of corruption. It also finds that PFM reforms associated with better controls have a stronger relationship with improvements in perceptions of corruption compared to PFM reforms associated with more transparency. The last chapter looks at the relationship between PEFA indicators for revenue administration and domestic resource mobilization. It focuses on the credible use of penalties for noncompliance as a proxy for the type of political commitment required to improve tax performance. The analysis shows that countries that credibly enforce penalties for noncompliance collect more taxes on average.