A Practitioners Guide To State And Local Population Projections
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| Author | : Stanley K. Smith |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 417 |
| Release | : 2013-12-16 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 9400775512 |
This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.
| Author | : Stanley K. Smith |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 433 |
| Release | : 2005-12-21 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 0306473720 |
The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As- ciation of America in New Orleans. While nursing drinks and expounding on a variety of topics, we began talking about our current research projects. It so happened that all three of us had been entertaining the notion of writing a book on state and local population projections. Recognizing the enormity of the project for a single author, we quickly decided to collaborate. Had we not decided to work together, it is unlikely that this book ever would have been written. The last comprehensive treatment of state and local population projections was Don Pittenger’s excellent work Projecting State and Local Populations (1976). Many changes affecting the production of population projections have occurred since that time. Technological changes have led to vast increases in computing power, new data sources, the development of GIS, and the creation of the Internet. The procedures for applying a number of projection methods have changed considerably, and several completely new methods have been developed.
| Author | : Jack Baker |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 260 |
| Release | : 2017-04-21 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 3319537458 |
This textbook focuses on the cohort change ratio (CCR) method. It presents powerful, yet relatively simple ways to generate accurate demographic estimates and forecasts that are cost efficient and require fewer resources than other techniques. The concepts, analytical frameworks, and methodological tools presented do not require extensive knowledge of demographics, mathematics, or statistics. The demographic focus is on the characteristics of populations, especially age and sex composition, but these methods are applicable estimating and forecasting other characteristics and total population. The book contains more traditional applications such as the Hamilton-Perry method, but also includes new applications of the CCR method such as stable population theory. Real world empirical examples are provided for every application; along with excel files containing data and program code, which are accessible online. Topics covered include basic demographic measures, sources of demographic information, forecasting and estimating (both current and historical) populations, modifications to current methods, forecasting school enrollment and other characteristics, estimating life expectancy, stable population theory, decomposition of the CCR into its migration and mortality components, and the utility of the CCR. This textbook is designed to provide material for an advanced undergraduate or graduate course on demographic methods. It can also be used as a supplement for other courses including applied demography, business and economic forecasting and market research.
| Author | : Dudley L. Poston Jr. |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 909 |
| Release | : 2019-04-16 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 3030109100 |
This comprehensive handbook provides an overview and update of the issues, theories, processes, and applications of the social science of population studies. The volume's 30 chapters cover the full range of conceptual, empirical, disciplinary, and applied approaches to the study of demographic phenomena. This book is the first effort to assess the entire field since Hauser and Duncan's 1959 classic, The Study of Population. The chapter authors are among the leading contributors to demographic scholarship over the past four decades. They represent a variety of disciplines and theoretical perspectives as well as interests in both basic and applied research.
| Author | : David A. Swanson |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 519 |
| Release | : 2016-11-11 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 3319433296 |
This book details cutting-edge methods and findings that may shape the future of applied demography. Inside, readers will discover new insights into the databases, substantive issues, and methodological approaches that can help them to improve how they use demography in decision making and planning problems in both public and private settings. The topics and perspectives are found in the book’s 23 chapters, which are organized into three major sections: (I) Demographic Information for Decision-Making: Case Studies; (II) Data: Issues and Analyses; and (III) Projection and Estimation Methods: Evaluations, Examples, and Discussions. Coverage includes chapters on migration, demographic market analysis, future courtroom needs, trends in the needs of the elderly, access to health care, longitudinal data systems, census costs, and new approaches to small area estimation and projection methods. The case studies represent a wide range of countries, including Australia, Canada, China, England, India, Japan, and the United States of America. Overall, this edited volume collects papers that were presented at different conferences, including the 8th international conference on population geographies (University of Queensland, 2015), the 2014 Applied Demography Conference (San Antonio, Texas, USA), and the annual conference of the Canadian Population Society. Applied demography touches many aspects of our lives and its practitioners continue to push methodological and empirical boundaries. This book documents the steady evolution of this field. It shows demographers, sociologists, economists, planners, marketers, and others how they can improve the quality and relevance of demographic information now and in the future.
| Author | : Nancey Green Leigh |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 352 |
| Release | : 2019-07-23 |
| Genre | : Architecture |
| ISBN | : 1317338995 |
The Routledge Handbook of International Planning Education is the first comprehensive handbook with a unique focus on planning education. Comparing approaches to the delivery of planning education by three major planning education accreditation bodies in the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom, and reflecting concerns from other national planning systems, this handbook will help to meet the strong interest and need for understanding how planning education is developed and delivered in different international contexts. The handbook is divided into five major sections, including coverage of general planning knowledge, planning skills, traditional and emerging planning specializations, and pedagogy. An international cohort of contributors covers each subject’s role in educating planners, its theory and methods, key literature contributions, and course design. Higher education’s response to globalization has included growth in planning educational exchanges across international boundaries; The Routledge Handbook of International Planning Education is an essential resource for planners and planning educators, informing the dialogue on the mobility of planners educated under different national schema.
| Author | : Rogelio Sáenz |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 637 |
| Release | : 2015-06-03 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 9048188911 |
Examining key countries in every region of world, this handbook presents population profiles and analyses concerning racial/ethnic disparities and changing intergroup relations. Inside, prominent scholars from various parts of the world and disciplines address the links between stratification, demography, and conflict across the globe. Organized by region/continent, coverage for each profiled country includes demographic information; a historical overview that addresses past racial/ethnic conflict; identification of the most salient demographic trends and issues that the country faces; theoretical issues related to the linkages between stratification, demography, and conflict; methodological issues including quality of data and cutting-edge methods to better understand the issue at hand; and details on the possible future of the existing trends and issues with particular emphasis on public policy and human rights. This handbook will help readers to better understand the commonalities and differences that exist globally in the interplay between stratification, demography, and conflict. In addition, it also provides an excellent inventory of theoretical perspectives and methodological approaches that are needed to better comprehend this issue. This handbook will appeal to students, researchers, and policy analysts in the areas of race and ethnic relations, demography, inequality, international sociology, international relations, foreign studies, social geography, and social development.
| Author | : John Bryant |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 280 |
| Release | : 2018-06-27 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 0429841345 |
Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting presents three statistical frameworks for modern demographic estimation and forecasting. The frameworks draw on recent advances in statistical methodology to provide new tools for tackling challenges such as disaggregation, measurement error, missing data, and combining multiple data sources. The methods apply to single demographic series, or to entire demographic systems. The methods unify estimation and forecasting, and yield detailed measures of uncertainty. The book assumes minimal knowledge of statistics, and no previous knowledge of demography. The authors have developed a set of R packages implementing the methods. Data and code for all applications in the book are available on www.bdef-book.com. "This book will be welcome for the scientific community of forecasters...as it presents a new approach which has already given important results and which, in my opinion, will increase its importance in the future." ~Daniel Courgeau, Institut national d'études démographiques
| Author | : Frank Donnelly |
| Publisher | : SAGE Publications |
| Total Pages | : 364 |
| Release | : 2019-10-07 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 1544355432 |
Exploring the U.S. Census gives social science students and researchers alike the tools to understand, extract, process, and analyze data from the decennial census, the American Community Survey, and other data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau. Donnelly′s text provides a thorough background on the data collection methods, structures, and potential pitfalls of the census for unfamiliar researchers, collecting information previously available only in widely disparate sources into one handy guide. Hands-on, applied exercises at the end of the chapters help readers dive into the data. Along the way, the author shows how best to analyze census data with open-source software and tools. Readers can freely evaluate the data on their own computers, in keeping with the free and open data provided by the Census Bureau. By placing the census in the context of the open data movement, this text makes the history and practice of the census relevant so readers can understand what a crucial resource the census is for research and knowledge.
| Author | : David A. Swanson |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 107 |
| Release | : 2015-11-28 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 3319259482 |
This book tells the story of how a group of far-sighted, academic researchers came to the aid of an overwhelmed local government. It details the history of the Washington State Census Board, which began in 1943 as part of an emergency measure during a massive wartime in-migration. The narrative also shows the demographic legacy of the Board and, ultimately, provides an unforgettable look into the creation and evolution of applied demography. Inside, readers will discover how Washington State struggled to keep up with the unexpected needs for housing, transportation, schools, and public utilities for the hundreds of thousands of migrants who came to work in industries that practically developed overnight with the mobilization for World War II. The author recounts how Professor Calvin F. Schmid, who led the Washington State Census Board, and his team developed methods of population estimation that are still in use today. In the process, the narrative reveals how population figures were gathered, compared, and projected at a time when the hand calculator was considered cutting-edge technology. The book also details how methods were refined and improved over time as well as how those involved developed new ways to obtain and, more importantly, utilize the information. With the aid of archived materials, personal interviews, and rich personal accounts, this book will inform and inspir e practicing and academic demographers as well as planners, policy-makers, historians, and interested readers.
