A Note on Imperfect Credibility

A Note on Imperfect Credibility
Author: Ippei Fujiwara
Publisher:
Total Pages: 16
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

We explore how outcomes of optimal monetary policy with loose commitment (Schaumburg and Tambalotti, 2007; Debortoli and Nunes, 2010) can be observationally equivalent, or interpretable as outcomes of deeper optimal policy under sustainable plans (Chari and Kehoe, 1990). Both interpretations of “imperfect credibility” in optimal monetary policy design are attempts to rationalize outcomes that lie in between the conventional extremes of optimal policy under commitment and under discretion. In a standard monetary-policy framework, when we match impulse responses of inflation and the output gap to large enough markup shocks, we find that a small probability (1 - a = 0.05) of replanning in the quasi/loose commitment world corresponds to N = 18 in the N-period punishment optimal sustainable monetary policy, in terms of observable outcomes. For plausible cases of loose-commitment model economies (with a between 0.77 and 1) we can find an observationally equivalent sustainable-plan economy indexed by some N.

Central Banks at a Crossroads

Central Banks at a Crossroads
Author: Michael D. Bordo
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 719
Release: 2016-06-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1107149665

This book discusses the role of central banks and draws lessons from examining their evolution over the past two centuries.

The Teacher Credibility and Collective Efficacy Playbook, Grades K-12

The Teacher Credibility and Collective Efficacy Playbook, Grades K-12
Author: Douglas Fisher
Publisher: Corwin Press
Total Pages: 280
Release: 2020-04-21
Genre: Education
ISBN: 1071811029

Explore the powerful synergy between your credibility with students and your collective efficacy as a member of a team. When you increase your credibility with students, student motivation rises. And when you partner with other teachers to achieve this, students learn more. This one-stop resource illuminates the connection between teacher credibility and collective efficacy and offers specific actions educators can take to improve both. It includes: Tips for becoming more trustworthy, competent, and responsive in the eyes of students Tools for teams to use to polish their collective effectiveness through better communication and problem-solving Coaching videos that challenge teachers to improve teacher practice and grow professionally

Inflation Targeting

Inflation Targeting
Author: Ben S. Bernanke
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 393
Release: 2018-06-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0691187398

How should governments and central banks use monetary policy to create a healthy economy? Traditionally, policymakers have used such strategies as controlling the growth of the money supply or pegging the exchange rate to a stable currency. In recent years a promising new approach has emerged: publicly announcing and pursuing specific targets for the rate of inflation. This book is the first in-depth study of inflation targeting. Combining penetrating theoretical analysis with detailed empirical studies of countries where inflation targeting has been adopted, the authors show that the strategy has clear advantages over traditional policies. They argue that the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank should adopt this strategy, and they make specific proposals for doing so. The book begins by explaining the unique features and advantages of inflation targeting. The authors argue that the simplicity and openness of inflation targeting make it far easier for the public to understand the intent and effects of monetary policy. This strategy also increases policymakers' accountability for inflation performance and can accommodate flexible, even "discretionary," monetary policy actions without sacrificing central banks' credibility. The authors examine how well variants of this approach have worked in nine countries: Germany and Switzerland (which employ a money-focused form of inflation targeting), New Zealand, Canada, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Israel, Spain, and Australia. They show that these countries have typically seen lower inflation, lower inflation expectations, and lower nominal interest rates, and have found that one-time shocks to the price level have less of a "pass-through" effect on inflation. These effects, in turn, are improving the climate for economic growth. The authors warn, however, that the success of inflation targeting depends on operational details, such as how the targets are defined and when they are announced. They also show that inflation targeting is not a panacea that can make inflation perfectly predictable or reduce it without economic costs. Clear, balanced, and authoritative, Inflation Targeting is a groundbreaking study that will have a major impact on the debate over the right monetary strategy for the coming decades. As a unique comparative study of what central banks actually do in different countries around the world, this book will also be invaluable to anyone interested in how economic policy is made.

Stock Prices and Monetary Policy

Stock Prices and Monetary Policy
Author: Paul De Grauwe
Publisher: CEPS
Total Pages: 22
Release: 2008
Genre: Monetary policy
ISBN: 929079819X

The question of whether central banks should target stock prices so as to prevent bubbles and crashes from occurring has been hotly debated. This paper analyses this question using a behavioural macroeconomic model. This model generates bubbles and crashes. It analyses how 'leaning against the wind' strategies, which aim to reduce the volatility of stock prices, can help in reducing volatility of output and inflation. We find that such policies can be effective in reducing macroeconomic volatility, thereby improving the trade-off between output and inflation variability. The strength of this result, however, depends on the degree of credibility of the inflation-targeting regime. In the absence of such credibility, policies aiming at stabilising stock prices do not stabilise output and inflation.

Theory and Credibility

Theory and Credibility
Author: Scott Ashworth
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 280
Release: 2021-07-20
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0691215006

A clear and comprehensive framework for bridging the widening gap between theorists and empiricists in social science The credibility revolution, with its emphasis on empirical methods for causal inference, has led to concerns among scholars that the canonical questions about politics and society are being neglected because they are no longer deemed answerable. Theory and Credibility stakes out an opposing view—presenting a new vision of how, working together, the credibility revolution and formal theory can advance social scientific inquiry. This authoritative book covers the conceptual foundations and practicalities of both model building and research design, providing a new framework to link theory and empirics. Drawing on diverse examples from political science, it presents a typology of the rich set of interactions that are possible between theory and empirics. This typology opens up new ways for scholars to make progress on substantive questions, and enables researchers from disparate traditions to gain a deeper appreciation for each other's work and why it matters. Theory and Credibility shows theorists how to create models that are genuinely useful to empirical inquiry, and helps empiricists better understand how to structure their research in ways that speak to theoretically meaningful questions.

Never Pure

Never Pure
Author: Steven Shapin
Publisher: JHU Press
Total Pages: 565
Release: 2010-06
Genre: History
ISBN: 0801894204

Steven Shapin argues that science, for all its immense authority and power, is and always has been a human endeavor, subject to human capacities and limits. Put simply, science has never been pure. To be human is to err, and we understand science better when we recognize it as the laborious achievement of fallible, imperfect, and historically situated human beings. Shapin’s essays collected here include reflections on the historical relationships between science and common sense, between science and modernity, and between science and the moral order. They explore the relevance of physical and social settings in the making of scientific knowledge, the methods appropriate to understanding science historically, dietetics as a compelling site for historical inquiry, the identity of those who have made scientific knowledge, and the means by which science has acquired credibility and authority. This wide-ranging and intensely interdisciplinary collection by one of the most distinguished historians and sociologists of science represents some of the leading edges of change in the scholarly understanding of science over the past several decades.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003
Author: Mark Gertler
Publisher: Mit Press
Total Pages: 432
Release: 2004
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780262072533

The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.

Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, and Independence

Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, and Independence
Author: Alex Cukierman
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 532
Release: 1992
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780262031981

This book brings together a large body of Cukierman's research and integrates it with recent developments in the political economy of monetary policy.