A New Approach To Measuring Financial Contagion
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Author | : Stijn Claessens |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 461 |
Release | : 2013-04-17 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475733143 |
No sooner had the Asian crisis broken out in 1997 than the witch-hunt started. With great indignation every Asian economy pointed fingers. They were innocent bystanders. The fundamental reason for the crisis was this or that - most prominently contagion - but also the decline in exports of the new commodities (high-tech goods), the steep rise of the dollar, speculators, etc. The prominent question, of course, is whether contagion could really have been the key factor and, if so, what are the channels and mechanisms through which it operated in such a powerful manner. The question is obvious because until 1997, Asia's economies were generally believed to be immensely successful, stable and well managed. This question is of great importance not only in understanding just what happened, but also in shaping policies. In a world of pure contagion, i.e. when innocent bystanders are caught up and trampled by events not of their making and when consequences go far beyond ordinary international shocks, countries will need to look for better protective policies in the future. In such a world, the international financial system will need to change in order to offer better preventive and reactive policy measures to help avoid, or at least contain, financial crises.
Author | : Mehmet Ziya Gorpe |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 63 |
Release | : 2019-05-10 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1498312071 |
This paper presents a novel approach to investigate and model the network of euro area banks’ large exposures within the global banking system. Drawing on a unique dataset, the paper documents the degree of interconnectedness and systemic risk of the euro area banking system based on bilateral linkages. We develop a Contagion Mapping model fully calibrated with bank-level data to study the contagion potential of an exogenous shock via credit and funding risks. We find that tipping points shifting the euro area banking system from a less vulnerable state to a highly vulnerable state are a non-linear function of the combination of network structures and bank-specific characteristics.
Author | : Francis X. Diebold |
Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
Total Pages | : 285 |
Release | : 2015-02-03 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0199338329 |
Connections among different assets, asset classes, portfolios, and the stocks of individual institutions are critical in examining financial markets. Interest in financial markets implies interest in underlying macroeconomic fundamentals. In Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness, Frank Diebold and Kamil Yilmaz propose a simple framework for defining, measuring, and monitoring connectedness, which is central to finance and macroeconomics. These measures of connectedness are theoretically rigorous yet empirically relevant. The approach to connectedness proposed by the authors is intimately related to the familiar econometric notion of variance decomposition. The full set of variance decompositions from vector auto-regressions produces the core of the 'connectedness table.' The connectedness table makes clear how one can begin with the most disaggregated pair-wise directional connectedness measures and aggregate them in various ways to obtain total connectedness measures. The authors also show that variance decompositions define weighted, directed networks, so that these proposed connectedness measures are intimately related to key measures of connectedness used in the network literature. After describing their methods in the first part of the book, the authors proceed to characterize daily return and volatility connectedness across major asset (stock, bond, foreign exchange and commodity) markets as well as the financial institutions within the U.S. and across countries since late 1990s. These specific measures of volatility connectedness show that stock markets played a critical role in spreading the volatility shocks from the U.S. to other countries. Furthermore, while the return connectedness across stock markets increased gradually over time the volatility connectedness measures were subject to significant jumps during major crisis events. This book examines not only financial connectedness, but also real fundamental connectedness. In particular, the authors show that global business cycle connectedness is economically significant and time-varying, that the U.S. has disproportionately high connectedness to others, and that pairwise country connectedness is inversely related to bilateral trade surpluses.
Author | : Rob Quail |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 570 |
Release | : 2011-02-09 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1118016521 |
"Financial Contagion: The Viral Threat to the Wealth of Nations covers a lot of territory. It is, of course, terribly important to analyze case histories to discover potential triggers, mechanisms of transmission, and viable ways to contain the damage of financial contagion. The problem is, as these articles amply demonstrate, that there’s always a new virus or a mutation of a former one lurking in some corner of the financial world. We don’t know what it is or where it is. And, even if we had some inkling, there’s almost never enough time to develop a financial flu shot." --SeekingAlpha.com The latest insights on financial contagion and how both nations and investors can effectively deal with it. The domino-style structure in which the financial system exists is a perilous one. Although historically, the financial system has been able to deal with major shocks, the fact remains that our financial system is not as secure as it should be. Recent years have brought about too many examples of contagion and systemic risk. That is why Financial Contagion is such an important read. In it, the serious concerns that revolve around our fragile economic system are investigated, researched, and explained. Throughout the book, Kolb offers valuable insights on this dilemma as he compiles the history of financial contagion, highlights the latest research on systemic failure and interrelated markets, and analyzes the risks and consequences we face moving forward. Examines the importance of careful regulation and what must be done to stabilize the global financial system Includes contributed chapters from both academics and experienced professionals, offering a variety of perspectives and a rich interplay of ideas Details how close we are to witnessing a financial contagion that could devastate the world economy We have been harshly reminded of how fragile our economic ecosystem is. With Financial Contagion, you'll hold a better understanding of what needs to be done to strengthen our system and safeguard our financial future.
Author | : Joseph G. Haubrich |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 286 |
Release | : 2013-01-24 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0226319288 |
In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the federal government has pursued significant regulatory reforms, including proposals to measure and monitor systemic risk. However, there is much debate about how this might be accomplished quantitatively and objectively—or whether this is even possible. A key issue is determining the appropriate trade-offs between risk and reward from a policy and social welfare perspective given the potential negative impact of crises. One of the first books to address the challenges of measuring statistical risk from a system-wide persepective, Quantifying Systemic Risk looks at the means of measuring systemic risk and explores alternative approaches. Among the topics discussed are the challenges of tying regulations to specific quantitative measures, the effects of learning and adaptation on the evolution of the market, and the distinction between the shocks that start a crisis and the mechanisms that enable it to grow.
Author | : Mardi Dungey |
Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
Total Pages | : 232 |
Release | : 2011-01-07 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0199842604 |
Financial crises often transmit across geographical borders and different asset classes. Modeling these interactions is empirically challenging, and many of the proposed methods give different results when applied to the same data sets. In this book the authors set out their work on a general framework for modeling the transmission of financial crises using latent factor models. They show how their framework encompasses a number of other empirical contagion models and why the results between the models differ. The book builds a framework which begins from considering contagion in the bond markets during 1997-1998 across a number of countries, and culminates in a model which encompasses multiple assets across multiple countries through over a decade of crisis events from East Asia in 1997-1998 to the sub prime crisis during 2008. Program code to support implementation of similar models is available.
Author | : Mrs.Jana Bricco |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 49 |
Release | : 2019-10-11 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513517856 |
The analysis of interconnectedness and contagion is an important part of the financial stability and risk assessment of a country’s financial system. This paper offers detailed and practical guidance on how to conduct a comprehensive analysis of interconnectedness and contagion for a country’s financial system under various circumstances. We survey current approaches at the IMF for analyzing interconnectedness within the interbank, cross-sector and cross-border dimensions through an overview and examples of the data and methodologies used in the Financial Sector Assessment Program. Finally, this paper offers practical advice on how to interpret results and discusses potential financial stability policy recommendations that can be drawn from this type of in-depth analysis.
Author | : Reto Francioni |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 612 |
Release | : 2017-01-17 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3319458485 |
This book underscores the complexity of the equity markets, the challenges they face, and the fact that they are still a work in process. Three interacting forces drive market change: competition, technology change, and regulatory change. The markets have one major objective in particular to achieve: the delivery of accurate price discovery for both traders and the broader market. Are we getting it? Are competition, technology, and regulation acting together to improve market quality, or are they adding to the complexity of the markets and making accurate price discovery harder to achieve? The difficulty of addressing these issues and reaching a consensus regarding public policy is reflected in the diverse opinions expressed in this book. From an institutional perspective, the volume’s contributors highlight the interconnectedness of all aspects of the internal and external environment within which exchange organizations act. Equity Markets in Transition underscores how technological evolution and recent regulatory changes have influenced the business, and how these developments have opened new possibilities for exchange organizations and for equity markets as a whole, including such issues as the impact of equity markets on job creation. The book combines both a theoretical and a practical approach. Part I presents a theoretical overview of the international equity market business, including an overall description of the value chain of stock trading that includes deep dives on every decisive step. Part II contains contributions from various business specialists who have specific practical and academic knowledge of the different steps. Equity Markets in Transition represents a unique combination of theoretical and practical analysis that offers first-hand insights on all relevant interactions and interrelations among the various parts of the exchange business, with an emphasis on facilitating analysis of the status quo and of emerging trends regarding business models, regulation, and the development of the competitor, customer and investor sides.
Author | : Jean-Pierre Fouque |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 993 |
Release | : 2013-05-23 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1107023432 |
The Handbook on Systemic Risk, written by experts in the field, provides researchers with an introduction to the multifaceted aspects of systemic risks facing the global financial markets. The Handbook explores the multidisciplinary approaches to analyzing this risk, the data requirements for further research, and the recommendations being made to avert financial crisis. The Handbook is designed to encourage new researchers to investigate a topic with immense societal implications as well as to provide, for those already actively involved within their own academic discipline, an introduction to the research being undertaken in other disciplines. Each chapter in the Handbook will provide researchers with a superior introduction to the field and with references to more advanced research articles. It is the hope of the editors that this Handbook will stimulate greater interdisciplinary academic research on the critically important topic of systemic risk in the global financial markets.
Author | : Roberto Chang |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 40 |
Release | : 2000 |
Genre | : Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress |
ISBN | : |
What can the international community do to prevent financial contagion?