A Monetary Policy Model Without Money for India

A Monetary Policy Model Without Money for India
Author: Michael Debabrata Patra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 64
Release: 2010-08-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455202177

A New Keynesian model estimated for India yields valuable insights. Aggregate demand reacts to interest rate changes with a lag of at least three quarters, with inflation taking seven quarters to respond. Inflation is inertial and persistent when it sets in, irrespective of the source. Exchange rate pass-through to domestic inflation is low. Inflation turns out to be the dominant focus of monetary policy, accompanied by a strong commitment to the stabilization of output. Recent policy actions have raised the effective policy rate, but the estimated neutral policy rate suggests some further tightening to normalize the policy stance.

Conditionality in Evolving Monetary Policy Regimes

Conditionality in Evolving Monetary Policy Regimes
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 61
Release: 2014-05-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498343694

With single-digit inflation and substantial financial deepening, developing countries are adopting more flexible and forward-looking monetary policy frameworks and ascribing a greater role to policy interest rates and inflation objectives. While some countries have adopted formal inflation targeting regimes, others have developed frameworks with greater target flexibility to accommodate changing money demand, use of policy rates to signal the monetary policy stance, and implicit inflation targets.

Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries

Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 74
Release: 2015-10-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498344062

Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.

International Dimensions of Monetary Policy

International Dimensions of Monetary Policy
Author: Jordi Galí
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 663
Release: 2010-03-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226278875

United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.

Finance & Development, September 2014

Finance & Development, September 2014
Author: International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 60
Release: 2014-08-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475566980

This chapter discusses various past and future aspects of the global economy. There has been a huge transformation of the global economy in the last several years. Articles on the future of energy in the global economy by Jeffrey Ball and on measuring inequality by Jonathan Ostry and Andrew Berg are also illustrated. Since the 2008 global crisis, global economists must change the way they look at the world.

Monetary Transmission in Developing Countries

Monetary Transmission in Developing Countries
Author: Ms.Prachi Mishra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 68
Release: 2016-09-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 147553356X

We examine the strength of monetary transmission in India, using a conventional structural VAR methodology. We find that a tightening of monetary policy is associated with a significant increase in bank lending rates and conventional effects on the exchange rate, though pass-through to lending rates is only partial and exchange rate effects are weak. We could find no significant effects on real output or the inflation rate. Though the message for the effectiveness of monetary transmission in India is therefore mixed, our results for India are more favorable than is often found for other developing countries.

Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle

Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle
Author: Jordi Galí
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 295
Release: 2015-06-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400866278

The classic introduction to the New Keynesian economic model This revised second edition of Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle provides a rigorous graduate-level introduction to the New Keynesian framework and its applications to monetary policy. The New Keynesian framework is the workhorse for the analysis of monetary policy and its implications for inflation, economic fluctuations, and welfare. A backbone of the new generation of medium-scale models under development at major central banks and international policy institutions, the framework provides the theoretical underpinnings for the price stability–oriented strategies adopted by most central banks in the industrialized world. Using a canonical version of the New Keynesian model as a reference, Jordi Galí explores various issues pertaining to monetary policy's design, including optimal monetary policy and the desirability of simple policy rules. He analyzes several extensions of the baseline model, allowing for cost-push shocks, nominal wage rigidities, and open economy factors. In each case, the effects on monetary policy are addressed, with emphasis on the desirability of inflation-targeting policies. New material includes the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and an analysis of unemployment’s significance for monetary policy. The most up-to-date introduction to the New Keynesian framework available A single benchmark model used throughout New materials and exercises included An ideal resource for graduate students, researchers, and market analysts

Breaking Through the Zero Lower Bound

Breaking Through the Zero Lower Bound
Author: Ruchir Agarwal
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2015-10-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513536915

There has been much discussion about eliminating the “zero lower bound” by eliminating paper currency. But such a radical and difficult approach as eliminating paper currency is not necessary. Much as during the Great Depression—when countries were able to revive their economies by going off the gold standard—all that is needed to empower monetary policy to cut interest rates as much as needed for economic stimulus now is to change from a paper standard to an electronic money standard, and to be willing to have paper currency go away from par. This paper develops the idea further and shows how such a mechanism can be implemented in a minimalist way by using a time-varying paper currency deposit fee between private banks and the central bank. This allows the central bank to create a crawling-peg exchange rate between paper currency and electronic money; the paper currency interest rate can be either lowered below zero or raised above zero. Such an ability to vary the paper currency interest rate along with other key interest rates, makes it possible to stimulate investment and net exports as much as needed to revive the economy, even when inflation, interest rates, and economic activity are quite low, as they are currently in many countries. The paper also examines different options available to the central bank to return to par when negative interest rates are no longer needed, and the associated implications for the financial sector and debt contracts. Finally, the paper discusses various legal, political, and economic challenges of putting in place such a framework and how policymakers could address them.

Interest and Prices

Interest and Prices
Author: Michael Woodford
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 805
Release: 2011-12-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400830168

With the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, any pretense of a connection of the world's currencies to any real commodity has been abandoned. Yet since the 1980s, most central banks have abandoned money-growth targets as practical guidelines for monetary policy as well. How then can pure "fiat" currencies be managed so as to create confidence in the stability of national units of account? Interest and Prices seeks to provide theoretical foundations for a rule-based approach to monetary policy suitable for a world of instant communications and ever more efficient financial markets. In such a world, effective monetary policy requires that central banks construct a conscious and articulate account of what they are doing. Michael Woodford reexamines the foundations of monetary economics, and shows how interest-rate policy can be used to achieve an inflation target in the absence of either commodity backing or control of a monetary aggregate. The book further shows how the tools of modern macroeconomic theory can be used to design an optimal inflation-targeting regime--one that balances stabilization goals with the pursuit of price stability in a way that is grounded in an explicit welfare analysis, and that takes account of the "New Classical" critique of traditional policy evaluation exercises. It thus argues that rule-based policymaking need not mean adherence to a rigid framework unrelated to stabilization objectives for the sake of credibility, while at the same time showing the advantages of rule-based over purely discretionary policymaking.

History of Monetary Policy in India Since Independence

History of Monetary Policy in India Since Independence
Author: Ashima Goyal
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 89
Release: 2014-07-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 8132219619

The book discusses Indian post-independence monetary history in the context of the country’s development and the global changes of the period. The conceptual framework used is the SIIO (Structure, Ideas, Institutions and Outcomes) paradigm. That is, structure and ideas become embedded in institutions and affect outcomes. Narrative history, data analysis and research reports demonstrate the dialectic between ideas and structure with respect to monetary history, aspects of India’s development, and the global institutions and events that impacted monetary choices. The history of the economy and of the global changes that affected it covers a time when major changes took place both in India and internationally. India’s greater openness is important both for it and for the world, but it occurred at a time of major global crises. How did these impact monetary choices and how did the latter help India navigate the crises while maintaining its trajectory towards greater liberalization? The book explores these and other relevant but under-analyzed questions. The initial combination of ideas and structure created fiscal dominance and made monetary policy procyclical. An aggregate supply-and-demand framework derived from forward-looking optimization subject to Indian structural constraints is able to explain growth and inflation outcomes in the light of policy actions. Using exogenous supply shocks to identify policy shocks and to isolate their effects, demonstrate that policy was sometimes exceedingly strict despite the common perception of a large monetary overhang. Surges and sudden stops in capital flow also constrained policy. But the three factors that cause a loss of monetary autonomy—governments, markets and openness—moderate each other. Markets moderate fiscal profligacy and global crises moderate market freedoms and ensure openness remains a sequenced and gradual process. The book argues greater current congruence between ideas and structure is improving institutions and contributing to India’s potential.