Stochastic Volatility and Jumps in Interest Rates

Stochastic Volatility and Jumps in Interest Rates
Author: Ren-Raw Chen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 43
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

In this paper, we examine possible stochastic volatility and jumps in short-term interest rates for four major countries: US, UK, Germany and Japan. An econometric model with stochastic volatility and jumps in both rates and volatility is derived and fit to the daily data for futures interest rates in four major currencies and the model provides a better fit for the empirical distributions. The distributions for changes in Eurocurrency interest rate futures are leptokurtic with fat tails and an unusually large percentage of observations concentrated at zero. The implied volatilities for at-the-money options on interest rate futures reveal evidence of stochastic volatility, as well as jumps in volatility.

Linear-Quadratic Term Structure Models - Toward the Understanding of Jumps in Interest Rates

Linear-Quadratic Term Structure Models - Toward the Understanding of Jumps in Interest Rates
Author: George J. Jiang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 13
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

In this paper, we propose a unifying class of affine-quadratic term structure models (AQTSMs) in the general jump-diffusion framework. Extending existing term structure models, the AQTSMs incorporate random jumps of stochastic intensity in the short rate process. Using information from the Treasury futures market, we propose a GMM approach for the estimation of the risk-neutral process. A distinguishing feature of the approach is that the time series estimates of stochastic volatility and jump intensity are obtained, together with model parameter estimates. Our empirical results suggest that stochastic jump intensity significantly improves the model fit to the term structure dynamics. We identify a stochastic jump intensity process that is negatively correlated with interest rate changes. Overall, negative jumps tend to have a larger size than positive ones. Our empirical results also suggest that, at monthly frequency, while stochastic volatility has certain predictive power of inflation, jumps are neither triggered by nor predictive of changes in macroeconomic variables. At daily frequency, however, we document interesting patterns for jumps associated with informational shocks in the financial market.

Nonlinear Drift and Stochastic Volatility

Nonlinear Drift and Stochastic Volatility
Author: Licheng Sun
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2002
Genre:
ISBN:

In this article I provide new evidence on the role of nonlinear drift and stochastic volatility in interest rate modeling. I compare various model specifications for the short-term interest rate using the data from five countries. I find that modeling the stochastic volatility in the short rate is far more important than specifying the shape of the drift function. The empirical support for nonlinear drift is weak with or without the stochastic volatility factor. Although a linear drift stochastic volatility model fits the international data well, I find that the level effect differs across countries.

Volatility and Jump Risk Premia in Emerging Market Bonds

Volatility and Jump Risk Premia in Emerging Market Bonds
Author: John Matovu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2007-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

There is strong evidence that interest rates and bond yield movements exhibit both stochastic volatility and unanticipated jumps. The presence of frequent jumps makes it natural to ask whether there is a premium for jump risk embedded in observed bond yields. This paper identifies a class of jump-diffusion models that are successful in approximating the term structure of interest rates of emerging markets. The parameters of the term structure of interest rates are reconciled with the associated bond yields by estimating the volatility and jump risk premia in highly volatile markets. Using the simulated method of moments (SMM), results suggest that all variants of models which do not take into account stochastic volatility and unanticipated jumps cannot generate the non-normalities consistent with the observed interest rates. Jumps occur (8,10) times a year in Argentina and Brazil, respectively. The size and variance of these jumps is also of statistical significance.

Discontinuous Interest Rate Processes

Discontinuous Interest Rate Processes
Author: Mukarram Attari
Publisher:
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper obtains equilibrium interest rate option prices for discontinuous short-term interest rate processes. The prices are first obtained for a general distribution of jump sizes using a process with a number of fixed sized jumps. The option price is the expectation, over the number and timing of jumps, of the option price given the number and timing of the jumps. This is similar in form to Merton's jump-diffusion option pricing formula for stock options. The differences are that (i) this paper does not need the assumption that jump risk is not priced and (ii) the timing of the jumps is also important. The pricing formulas are then used to obtain option prices when the jump distribution is known to be one of the continuous distributions. The commonly used jump-diffusion and stochastic volatility diffusion option prices can be obtained as limiting cases. The paper shows how portfolios to hedge derivative securities can be built.

Comparing Estimation Procedures for Stochastic Volatility Models of Short-Term Interest Rates

Comparing Estimation Procedures for Stochastic Volatility Models of Short-Term Interest Rates
Author: Ramaprasad Bhar
Publisher:
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper compares the performance of three maximum likelihood estimation procedures -quasi-maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo likelihood and the particle filter to estimate stochastic volatility models of short term interest rates. The procedures are compared in an empirical study of interest rate volatility where a number of diagnostic tests in- and out-of-sample are utilized to evaluate both model specification and estimation procedure. Empirically, the results suggest interest rates follow the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model with stochastic volatility and that volatility increases after Federal Open Market Committee meetings. Overall, the Monte Carlo likelihood procedure provided the best results.

An Elementary Introduction to Stochastic Interest Rate Modeling

An Elementary Introduction to Stochastic Interest Rate Modeling
Author: Nicolas Privault
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 243
Release: 2012
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9814390860

Interest rate modeling and the pricing of related derivatives remain subjects of increasing importance in financial mathematics and risk management. This book provides an accessible introduction to these topics by a step-by-step presentation of concepts with a focus on explicit calculations. Each chapter is accompanied with exercises and their complete solutions, making the book suitable for advanced undergraduate and graduate level students. This second edition retains the main features of the first edition while incorporating a complete revision of the text as well as additional exercises with their solutions, and a new introductory chapter on credit risk. The stochastic interest rate models considered range from standard short rate to forward rate models, with a treatment of the pricing of related derivatives such as caps and swaptions under forward measures. Some more advanced topics including the BGM model and an approach to its calibration are also covered.