Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and the Ceecs

Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and the Ceecs
Author: Jarko Fidrmuc
Publisher:
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

We review the literature on business cycle correlation between the euro area and the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), a topic that has gained attention as the newest EU members approach monetary union. Our meta-analysis of 35 identified publications suggests some CEECs already have comparably high correlation with the euro area business cycle. We find that estimation methodologies can have a significant effect on correlation coefficients. While CEEC central bankers tend to be more conservative in their estimates than academics or eurosystem researchers, we find no evidence of a geographical bias in the studies.

Meta-analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation Between the Euro Area and the CEECs

Meta-analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation Between the Euro Area and the CEECs
Author: Jarko Fidrmuc
Publisher:
Total Pages: 27
Release: 2006
Genre:
ISBN:

We review the literature on business cycle correlation between the euro area and the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), a topic that has gained attention as the newest EU members approach monetary union. Our meta-analysis of 35 identified publications suggests some CEECs already have comparably high correlation with the euro area business cycle. We find that estimation methodologies can have a significant effect on correlation coefficients. While CEEC central bankers tend to be more conservative in their estimates than academics or eurosystem researchers, we find no evidence of a geographical bias in the studies.

Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration

Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration
Author: Marcus Kappler
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 197
Release: 2012-07-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3790828556

This book offers the reader a state-of-the-art overview on theory and empirics of business cycle synchronisation, structural reform and economic integration. Focusing on the ongoing integration process in the euro area and the EU, it analyses the integration process that has taken place since the 1980s and which is marked by the advent of the euro and the substantial enlargement that resulted from the accession of 12 new Member States in East and Southern Europe.

How much are the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) aligned with the Euro area?

How much are the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) aligned with the Euro area?
Author: Tobias Dümmler
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 58
Release: 2008-04-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3638032051

Seminar paper from the year 2007 in the subject Economics - Monetary theory and policy, grade: 2,0, University of Frankfurt (Main) (Schwerpunkt Geld- und Währung), course: Seminar topics in monetary economics, 25 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: The intention of this paper is to discuss the alignment of the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) with the euro area. We tried to choose our alignment criteria in a way that is always referring to the consequences for a common monetary policy and the effects on transmission. Nevertheless, we have to emphasize that our intention is to give an overview how much the CEEC are aligned with the euro area; unfortunately we would oversize this paper by discussing the consequences of the observed developments for a common monetary policy in detail. We proceed as follows: First, we refer to the so-called Maastricht Criteria because they are a guideline for the decision whether a new member state is prepared to join the euro area and use the Euro as an official currency or not. We report graphs and figures of time series to illustrate developments. The results serve as a good starting point for deeper analyses and suggest some evidence for an alignment process that has taken place over the last years across the CEEC. Second, in order to gain a wider impression of the current state of alignment, we try to approach from another direction: We are making reference to the theory of optimum currency areas which will be briefly discussed. In the light of this approach, we continue with studying the alignment and present other criteria which seem to be appropriate – beside inflation rates, we focus on GDP, private consumption and unemployment – and are able to deliver important clues for our discussion. We provide some descriptive analyses including cross-correlation analyses of the time series we dealt with in this chapter. Unfortunately, there are developments in the time series we cannot explain sufficiently with our analyses done up to this point. For that reason we distinguish the GDP time series into the trend component and the cyclical behaviour for our observed countries as well as for the euro area. This is done by using a HP-filter implemented in Matlab. Afterwards, we are able to compare trend growth rates of the CEEC with the euro area and we can then do a correlation analysis of the cyclical components of the time series. Based on these findings, we briefly give an overview about some important articles dealing with the CEEC alignment and a comparison of the effects of the transmisthe European Union.

Business Cycle Synchronization of CEECs with the Euro Area

Business Cycle Synchronization of CEECs with the Euro Area
Author: Carlo Di Giorgio
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

This article investigates the possible business cycle linkages between CEECs (Central and Eastern European countries) that were candidates to enter the EMU and the euro area for the period 1993 to 2014. We analyse business cycle (a)symmetries for these countries by using Markov switching autoregressive models and synchronization tests. By analysing the correlations between the cyclical fluctuations for these countries, we examine the existence of common features between the individual cycles. By distinguishing between different regimes, we show that the indications of business cycle synchronization are quite high in the recession regime, but lower in the normal and high growth regimes, with the exceptions of Hungary and Poland.