A General Methodology For Inferring Failure Propagation Process From Post Disaster Disruptions Data
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| Author | : Deborah G. Mayo |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 503 |
| Release | : 2018-09-20 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 1108563309 |
Mounting failures of replication in social and biological sciences give a new urgency to critically appraising proposed reforms. This book pulls back the cover on disagreements between experts charged with restoring integrity to science. It denies two pervasive views of the role of probability in inference: to assign degrees of belief, and to control error rates in a long run. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence reforms, they can't scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, etc.). The book sets sail with a simple tool: if little has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. Many methods advocated by data experts do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are in tension with successful strategies for blocking or accounting for cherry picking and selective reporting. Through a series of excursions and exhibits, the philosophy and history of inductive inference come alive. Philosophical tools are put to work to solve problems about science and pseudoscience, induction and falsification.
| Author | : Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations |
| Publisher | : Food & Agriculture Org. |
| Total Pages | : 245 |
| Release | : 2021-03-17 |
| Genre | : Nature |
| ISBN | : 9251340714 |
On top of a decade of exacerbated disaster loss, exceptional global heat, retreating ice and rising sea levels, humanity and our food security face a range of new and unprecedented hazards, such as megafires, extreme weather events, desert locust swarms of magnitudes previously unseen, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Agriculture underpins the livelihoods of over 2.5 billion people – most of them in low-income developing countries – and remains a key driver of development. At no other point in history has agriculture been faced with such an array of familiar and unfamiliar risks, interacting in a hyperconnected world and a precipitously changing landscape. And agriculture continues to absorb a disproportionate share of the damage and loss wrought by disasters. Their growing frequency and intensity, along with the systemic nature of risk, are upending people’s lives, devastating livelihoods, and jeopardizing our entire food system. This report makes a powerful case for investing in resilience and disaster risk reduction – especially data gathering and analysis for evidence informed action – to ensure agriculture’s crucial role in achieving the future we want.
| Author | : Daphne Koller |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 1270 |
| Release | : 2009-07-31 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 0262258358 |
A general framework for constructing and using probabilistic models of complex systems that would enable a computer to use available information for making decisions. Most tasks require a person or an automated system to reason—to reach conclusions based on available information. The framework of probabilistic graphical models, presented in this book, provides a general approach for this task. The approach is model-based, allowing interpretable models to be constructed and then manipulated by reasoning algorithms. These models can also be learned automatically from data, allowing the approach to be used in cases where manually constructing a model is difficult or even impossible. Because uncertainty is an inescapable aspect of most real-world applications, the book focuses on probabilistic models, which make the uncertainty explicit and provide models that are more faithful to reality. Probabilistic Graphical Models discusses a variety of models, spanning Bayesian networks, undirected Markov networks, discrete and continuous models, and extensions to deal with dynamical systems and relational data. For each class of models, the text describes the three fundamental cornerstones: representation, inference, and learning, presenting both basic concepts and advanced techniques. Finally, the book considers the use of the proposed framework for causal reasoning and decision making under uncertainty. The main text in each chapter provides the detailed technical development of the key ideas. Most chapters also include boxes with additional material: skill boxes, which describe techniques; case study boxes, which discuss empirical cases related to the approach described in the text, including applications in computer vision, robotics, natural language understanding, and computational biology; and concept boxes, which present significant concepts drawn from the material in the chapter. Instructors (and readers) can group chapters in various combinations, from core topics to more technically advanced material, to suit their particular needs.
| Author | : National Research Council |
| Publisher | : National Academies Press |
| Total Pages | : 197 |
| Release | : 2011-09-09 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 0309186773 |
The United States will certainly be subject to damaging earthquakes in the future. Some of these earthquakes will occur in highly populated and vulnerable areas. Coping with moderate earthquakes is not a reliable indicator of preparedness for a major earthquake in a populated area. The recent, disastrous, magnitude-9 earthquake that struck northern Japan demonstrates the threat that earthquakes pose. Moreover, the cascading nature of impacts-the earthquake causing a tsunami, cutting electrical power supplies, and stopping the pumps needed to cool nuclear reactors-demonstrates the potential complexity of an earthquake disaster. Such compound disasters can strike any earthquake-prone populated area. National Earthquake Resilience presents a roadmap for increasing our national resilience to earthquakes. The National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) is the multi-agency program mandated by Congress to undertake activities to reduce the effects of future earthquakes in the United States. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)-the lead NEHRP agency-commissioned the National Research Council (NRC) to develop a roadmap for earthquake hazard and risk reduction in the United States that would be based on the goals and objectives for achieving national earthquake resilience described in the 2008 NEHRP Strategic Plan. National Earthquake Resilience does this by assessing the activities and costs that would be required for the nation to achieve earthquake resilience in 20 years. National Earthquake Resilience interprets resilience broadly to incorporate engineering/science (physical), social/economic (behavioral), and institutional (governing) dimensions. Resilience encompasses both pre-disaster preparedness activities and post-disaster response. In combination, these will enhance the robustness of communities in all earthquake-vulnerable regions of our nation so that they can function adequately following damaging earthquakes. While National Earthquake Resilience is written primarily for the NEHRP, it also speaks to a broader audience of policy makers, earth scientists, and emergency managers.
| Author | : National Research Council |
| Publisher | : National Academies Press |
| Total Pages | : 296 |
| Release | : 2011-03-01 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 0309209897 |
Many coastal areas of the United States are at risk for tsunamis. After the catastrophic 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean, legislation was passed to expand U.S. tsunami warning capabilities. Since then, the nation has made progress in several related areas on both the federal and state levels. At the federal level, NOAA has improved the ability to detect and forecast tsunamis by expanding the sensor network. Other federal and state activities to increase tsunami safety include: improvements to tsunami hazard and evacuation maps for many coastal communities; vulnerability assessments of some coastal populations in several states; and new efforts to increase public awareness of the hazard and how to respond. Tsunami Warning and Preparedness explores the advances made in tsunami detection and preparedness, and identifies the challenges that still remain. The book describes areas of research and development that would improve tsunami education, preparation, and detection, especially with tsunamis that arrive less than an hour after the triggering event. It asserts that seamless coordination between the two Tsunami Warning Centers and clear communications to local officials and the public could create a timely and effective response to coastal communities facing a pending tsuanami. According to Tsunami Warning and Preparedness, minimizing future losses to the nation from tsunamis requires persistent progress across the broad spectrum of efforts including: risk assessment, public education, government coordination, detection and forecasting, and warning-center operations. The book also suggests designing effective interagency exercises, using professional emergency-management standards to prepare communities, and prioritizing funding based on tsunami risk.
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 238 |
| Release | : 1995 |
| Genre | : Electric railroads |
| ISBN | : |
This manual provides direction for the preparation of noise and vibration sections of environmental documents for mass transportation projects. The manual has been developed in the interest of promoting quality and uniformity in assessments. It is expected to be used by people associated with or affected by the urban transit industry, including Federal Transit Administration (FTA) staff, grant applicants, consultants and the general public. Each of these groups has an interest in noise/vibration assessment, but not all have the need for all the details of the process. Consequently, this manual has been prepared to serve readers with varying levels of technical background and interests. It sets forth the basic concepts, methods and procedures for documenting the extent and severity of noise impacts from transit projects.
| Author | : Bungale S. Taranath |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 872 |
| Release | : 2016-10-04 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 1466556218 |
Addresses the Question Frequently Proposed to the Designer by Architects: "Can We Do This? Offering guidance on how to use code-based procedures while at the same time providing an understanding of why provisions are necessary, Tall Building Design: Steel, Concrete, and Composite Systems methodically explores the structural behavior of steel, concrete, and composite members and systems. This text establishes the notion that design is a creative process, and not just an execution of framing proposals. It cultivates imaginative approaches by presenting examples specifically related to essential building codes and standards. Tying together precision and accuracy—it also bridges the gap between two design approaches—one based on initiative skill and the other based on computer skill. The book explains loads and load combinations typically used in building design, explores methods for determining design wind loads using the provisions of ASCE 7-10, and examines wind tunnel procedures. It defines conceptual seismic design, as the avoidance or minimization of problems created by the effects of seismic excitation. It introduces the concept of performance-based design (PBD). It also addresses serviceability considerations, prediction of tall building motions, damping devices, seismic isolation, blast-resistant design, and progressive collapse. The final chapters explain gravity and lateral systems for steel, concrete, and composite buildings. The Book Also Considers: Preliminary analysis and design techniques The structural rehabilitation of seismically vulnerable steel and concrete buildings Design differences between code-sponsored approaches The concept of ductility trade-off for strength Tall Building Design: Steel, Concrete, and Composite Systems is a structural design guide and reference for practicing engineers and educators, as well as recent graduates entering the structural engineering profession. This text examines all major concrete, steel, and composite building systems, and uses the most up-to-date building codes.
| Author | : Gary King |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 259 |
| Release | : 1994-05-22 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 0691034710 |
Designing Social Inquiry focuses on improving qualitative research, where numerical measurement is either impossible or undesirable. What are the right questions to ask? How should you define and make inferences about causal effects? How can you avoid bias? How many cases do you need, and how should they be selected? What are the consequences of unavoidable problems in qualitative research, such as measurement error, incomplete information, or omitted variables? What are proper ways to estimate and report the uncertainty of your conclusions?
| Author | : U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 164 |
| Release | : 1977 |
| Genre | : Nuclear energy |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality/AHRQ |
| Publisher | : Government Printing Office |
| Total Pages | : 385 |
| Release | : 2014-04-01 |
| Genre | : Medical |
| ISBN | : 1587634333 |
This User’s Guide is intended to support the design, implementation, analysis, interpretation, and quality evaluation of registries created to increase understanding of patient outcomes. For the purposes of this guide, a patient registry is an organized system that uses observational study methods to collect uniform data (clinical and other) to evaluate specified outcomes for a population defined by a particular disease, condition, or exposure, and that serves one or more predetermined scientific, clinical, or policy purposes. A registry database is a file (or files) derived from the registry. Although registries can serve many purposes, this guide focuses on registries created for one or more of the following purposes: to describe the natural history of disease, to determine clinical effectiveness or cost-effectiveness of health care products and services, to measure or monitor safety and harm, and/or to measure quality of care. Registries are classified according to how their populations are defined. For example, product registries include patients who have been exposed to biopharmaceutical products or medical devices. Health services registries consist of patients who have had a common procedure, clinical encounter, or hospitalization. Disease or condition registries are defined by patients having the same diagnosis, such as cystic fibrosis or heart failure. The User’s Guide was created by researchers affiliated with AHRQ’s Effective Health Care Program, particularly those who participated in AHRQ’s DEcIDE (Developing Evidence to Inform Decisions About Effectiveness) program. Chapters were subject to multiple internal and external independent reviews.
