Empirical Vector Autoregressive Modeling

Empirical Vector Autoregressive Modeling
Author: Marius Ooms
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 397
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642487920

1. 1 Integrating results The empirical study of macroeconomic time series is interesting. It is also difficult and not immediately rewarding. Many statistical and economic issues are involved. The main problems is that these issues are so interrelated that it does not seem sensible to address them one at a time. As soon as one sets about the making of a model of macroeconomic time series one has to choose which problems one will try to tackle oneself and which problems one will leave unresolved or to be solved by others. From a theoretic point of view it can be fruitful to concentrate oneself on only one problem. If one follows this strategy in empirical application one runs a serious risk of making a seemingly interesting model, that is just a corollary of some important mistake in the handling of other problems. Two well known examples of statistical artifacts are the finding of Kuznets "pseudo-waves" of about 20 years in economic activity (Sargent (1979, p. 248)) and the "spurious regression" of macroeconomic time series described in Granger and Newbold (1986, §6. 4). The easiest way to get away with possible mistakes is to admit they may be there in the first place, but that time constraints and unfamiliarity with the solution do not allow the researcher to do something about them. This can be a viable argument.

Optimization and Discrete Choice in Urban Systems

Optimization and Discrete Choice in Urban Systems
Author: Bruce G. Hutchinson
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 381
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642510205

'l'he papers contained in this volume were originally presented at the International symposium on New Directions in Urban Systems Modelling held at the University of Waterloo in July, 1983. The papers have been reviewed and rewritten since that time. The exception is the introductory paper written specially by Manfred Fischer and Peter Nijkamp as an introduction to this volume. The manuscript was prepared in the word processing unit in the nepartment of Civil Engineering, university of Waterloo. The sustained work of Mrs. I. Steffler in preparing this manuscript is gratefully acknowledged. "'r. R. K. Kumar provided excellent assistance with the editorial process. The svrnposium and the preparation of this manuscript were supporteö financially by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, The Academic Development Fund and the Department of Civil Engineering, TTniversity of waterloo. TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE •....••...•..•...•..........•..••.•....•.•••.••.••.•..•••••.•.••.. III Categorical Data and Choice Analysis in a Spatial Context Manfred Fischer and Peter Nijkamp .•••....•.......•.•.....•.......•.......

Plural Rationality and Interactive Decision Processes

Plural Rationality and Interactive Decision Processes
Author: Manfred Grauer
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 356
Release: 2013-06-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3662024322

These Proceedings report the scientific results of the Summer Study on Plural Rationality and Interactive Decision Processes orga nized jointly by the System and Decision Sciences Program of the Inter national Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (located in Laxenburg, Austria) and the Hungarian Committee for Applied Systems Analysis. The Study, which was held in Sopron over the period 16-26 Augus·t 1984, had a very special character. Sixty-eight researchers from sixteen coun tr~es participated, most of them contributing papers or experiments. In addition many members of IIASA's Young Scientists Summer Program were present. All of these participants were heavily involved in dis cussions; discussions that were not limited to the allotted time but extended well into the evenings and nights. By design, the Study gathered specialists from many disciplines, from philosophy and cultur al anthropology, through decision theory, game theory and economics, to engineering and applied mathematics. A further element of diversity was the representation of several varieties of culture, from typically Western countries, through Middle and Eastern Europe, to the Far East.

Arbitrage Theory

Arbitrage Theory
Author: Jochen E.M. Wilhelm
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 124
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642500943

The present 'Introductory Lectures on Arbitrage-based Financial Asset Pricing' are a first attempt to give a comprehensive presentation of Arbitrage Theory in a discrete time framework (by the way: all the re sults given in these lectures apply to a continuous time framework but, probably, in continuous time we could achieve stronger results - of course at the price of stronger assumptions). It has been turned out in the last few years that capital market theory as derived and evolved from the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) in the middle sixties, can, to an astonishing extent, be based on arbitrage arguments only, rather than on mean-variance preferences of investors. On the other hand, ar bitrage arguments provided access to a wider range of results which could not be obtained by standard CAPM-methods, e. g. the valuation of contingent claims (derivative assets) Dr the_ investigation of futures prices. To some extent the presentation will loosely follow historical lines. A selected set of capital asset pricing models will be derived according to their historical progress and their increasing complexity as well. It will be seen that they all share common structural properties. After having made this observation the presentation will become an axiomatical one: it will be stated in precise terms what arbitrage is about and what the consequences are if markets do not allow for risk-free arbitrage opportunities. The presentation will partly be accompanied by an illus trating example: two-state option pricing.

Generalized Convexity

Generalized Convexity
Author: Sandor Komlosi
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 406
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642468020

Generalizations of the classical concept of a convex function have been proposed in various fields such as economics, management science, engineering, statistics and applied sciences during the second half of this century. In addition to new results in more established areas of generalized convexity, this book presents several important developments in recently emerging areas. Also, a number of interesting applications are reported.